FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC RISK BASED ON ITS DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
I.A. Ivanova
Keywords: food supply security, agricultural system, stability, agriculture, manufacture
Abstract
This article considers the research of agricultural system stability based on the observation of spatiotemporal common factors of agriculture development cyclicality as a main component of the food supply security system. With the help of the spectral analysis the mathematical model of forecasting was developed to demonstrate the cycling of events in the agricultural sector. This model is based on the dynamic series of grain yield level in the European part of Russian Empire, USSR and Russian Federation in its modern boundaries for the period from 1883 till 2010.
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