P.Yu. Gornov, M.V. Goroshko, Yu.F. Malyshev, V.Ya. Podgornyi
Kosygin Institute of Tectonics and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the RAS, 65 ul. Kim Yu Chena, Khabarovsk, 680000, Russia
Keywords: thermal structure; radioactive elements; models of lithosphere; heat flow; cratons; orogens; East Asia
Pages: 477-492 Subsection: GEOPHYSICS
We investigate the 2D thermal structure of lithosphere in the Central Asian and Pacific tectonic belts and adjacent cratonic areas of Siberia and North China using a synthesis of geothermal data from six geoscience transects covered by seismic, resistivity, and gravity surveys. The patterns of rock density, radiogenic heat production derived from U and Th abundances, thermal conductivity, temperatures, and respective heat flows reveal a layered structure. The model with layers distinguished according to density and thermal parameters includes well pronounced dome-shaped features in the crust which correlate with upwarps of the asthenospheric top. The domes are marked by high heat flows of 60-90 mW/m2 with a mantle component higher than the crustal one (30-60 mW/m2 against 20-30 mW/m2) and temperatures as high as 800-1100 °C at the Moho. Many of these features correspond to known and potential petroleum basins.
A high-resolution image is constructed by joint interpolation of a series of low-resolution images differing in mutual shifts which are not multiples of the sampling interval. Interpolation coefficients are determined by using correlations between the readings of the initial images. Results of experiments showing the efficiency of the proposed approach are given.
Y. G. Bulychev, L. I. Borodin, V. A. Golovskoi, A. A. Mozol', V. M. Chelakhov
Keywords: multistructural interference, vector of linear functionals, invariance, generalized estimation, optimality
Pages: 14-21
An optimal method of generalized estimation of the values of linear functionals is developed for the case where experimental data include not only selected values of the measured process, but also values of its derivatives of various orders. In addition, experimental data are assumed to contain a multistructural piecewise-continuous interference, which is known to accuracy of parameters and for which the instants of the structural change are unknown. The method is invariant to this type of interferences and does not require extension of the space of states, as compared to available estimation techniques.
V. G. Alekseev, V. A. Sukhodoev
Keywords: stationary continuous-time random process, Welch-type estimator of spectral density, B-Schoenberg splines of odd degrees
Pages: 22-28
A Welch-type estimator (an estimator obtained by averaging over the time shift) for the spectral density function of a stationary continuous-time random process is considered. The bias and variance of the statistical estimator are studied, and some recommendations concerning the choice of its parameters are formulated.
Methods for forming a three-dimensional image of the Earth surface and objects on this surface with the use of an airborne multichannel radio-thermal location station are proposed. These methods are based on range measurement, image reconstruction, and correlation-extreme combination of frames.
This paper considers a group of linear perspectives for transformation of three-dimensional visual scenes based on a patented method of displaying objects. Projective transformation matrices, including those for three-dimensional graphics application programs, are given.
B. N. Lutsenko
Keywords: time series, stochastic models, linear nonstationary models, seasonal series, seasonal periods, ARMA and ARIMA models, model identification, solar activity periods, Wolf number, forecast
Pages: 45-60
A method is proposed for estimating non-multiple seasonal periods by an example of data on cyclic solar activity in the form of Wolf numbers. The values of the periods obtained are used to construct a multiplicative seasonal model in which the number of periods cannot exceed five in practice. Two possible variants of the algorithm for choosing the initial approximations of the model parameters with the use of a pseudorandom number generator are described. A modification of the two-stage steepest descent algorithm with improved performance and stability is given. For incomplete inadequate autoregressive moving average models, an additional criterion of proximity of the trajectory formed by the model to actual data is proposed, which can improve the forecast quality.
Relations between the accuracy of hotspot determination and the monitoring area of remote forest fire detection systems are considered. The indicated characteristics have a significant effect on the efficiency of the systems considered. The efficiency can be increased by simultaneously using visual monitoring means and automated mapping of forest compartments in the monitored area. Procedures for searching the forest compartment number and determining compartment boundaries are discussed.
V. D. Antsygin, S. M. Borzov, A. A. Maslov, O. I. Potaturkin, V. V. Shumskii, M. I. Yaroslavtsev
Keywords: flows, hot-shot wind tunnels, gas sampling, measurement of the composition of the mixture, small-size sensors
Pages: 69-77
A method for gas sampling in hypersonic hot-shot wind tunnels is proposed. A sampler designed on the basis of this method is shown to ensure heat removal for "freezing" the sample and to provide reliable information about the composition of a hypersonic gas flow. A diagnostic system for multispecies gas mixtures on the basis of small-size sensors is developed and manufactured. Testing this system in an IT-302M hypersonic hot-shot wind tunnel shows that the measurements correctly capture the trends in the behavior of oxygen concentration as a function of flow energy, but the values are underestimated approximately by 2% with respect to the true values. Possible reasons for this behavior of the sensor are discussed.
V. A. Vittikh, P. O. Skobelev
Keywords: coupled interactions, networks of needs and means, resource allocation, real-time scale, programming tools
Pages: 78-87
A method of coupled interactions for real-time management of resource allocation is proposed. A distinctive feature of the method is the replacement of the enumeration of decision patterns, requiring high computational efforts, by bilateral negotiations aimed at detecting conflicts and reaching compromises between incoming requests and available means in constructing complex schedules. This feature provides significant advantages during solution of complex problems of real-time resource allocation, which can be important for corporate and government management systems.
V. P. Lukin, N. N. Botygina, O. N. Emaleev, V. P. Korol'kov, L. N. Lavrinova, R. K. Nasyrov, A. G. Poleshchuk, V. V. Cherkashin
Keywords: Shack-Hartmann sensor, low-aperture off-axis diffraction lens array, atmospheric turbulence, adaptive optics
Pages: 88-98
A Shack-Hartmann type wavefront sensor designed on the basis of a low-aperture off-axis diffraction lens array is described. Tests experiments showed that the sensor is capable of measuring wavefront slopes at array subapertures of size 640Ч640 μm with an error not exceeding 4.80 arcseconds (0.15 pixel), which corresponds to the standard deviation (SD) (SD = 0.0170λ) at the reconstructed wavefront. Advantages of the array used in the sensor and the technology of its manufacture are discussed. The sensor tested in the experiments can be used to measure atmospheric turbulence parameters and as an element of adaptive optical imaging systems.
Results of analyzing chromatic aberrations of an eye model with different designs of intraocular lenses (IOLs), that is, artificial crystalline lenses (refractive, diffractive-refractive, diffractive, and harmonic, i.e., multiorder lenses) are represented. Investigations were carried out sequentially for elements of the model, namely, for a cornea, refractive and diffractive components, and IOL, and as a whole, for a cornea + IOL. It is shown that diffractive-refractive IOLs in which the diffractive components produce a positive additional focal power possess the best chromatic characteristics. Chromatic aberration of the eye model with such IOLs is 2 times less than that of a model with a refractive IOL, whereas with other IOL designs it is 2 times greater and even more.
E. G. Shapiro, M. P. Fedoruk
Keywords: dispersion, nonlinearity, fiber-optical communication links, error rate, nonlinear Schr?dinger equation, numerical modeling
Pages: 115-119
Direct numerical modeling of propagation of optical pulses is performed to determine the "tails" of the probability density function of marks and spaces and the statistics of errors in an optical communication link on the basis of a standard single-mode fiber and a dispersion-compensation fiber with a reduced density of marks in the initial bit sequence. Simple analytical approximations for the tails of the probability density function are determined, which allows accurate estimation of the error probability in the link.
The paper analyzes methodological issues of how regional markets develop, the role which they play in regional economy as well as spatial, institutional and reproduction aspects of the structures of such markets. The author, having analyzed different theories of regional markets, validates the approaches to a concept of the regional market development which allows coordinating interests of governments and businesses.
he paper considers an optimization model of plannig the investments made into a regional touristic complex. A criterion for choosing an effective plan is based on synergistic effect. One of the advantages of such model is the fact that a criterion function and a set of constraints are represented as linear functions that allows solving a problem of rather high dimensionality.
The paper analyzes major opinions and evaluations of Russian experts in regional policy and federate relations concerning the issue of what model of federalism would be appropriate to Russia and what impact it would have on the spatial development of the country. As the analysis shows, the experts' opinions are mostly defined by their evaluations of how advanced the political institutions of federalism are and to what extent they are effective. Most experts consider essential, and even inevitable, the decision making to be decentralized and the independence of regions, and municipal units to be extended.
The paper considers methodical issues of how to assess regional ratings. To illustrate this problem, the ratings of the regions of the Siberian Federal District are presented. The author proves his choice of a two-phase and two-criterion technique to assess ratings as well as to make "soft", i.e. grouped ratings. However a basic argument is beyond the technique and consists in idea to apply more flexible criteria to assess the quality of governance in RF units.
The paper is devoted to the question of whether a true-savings index - a sustainable development indicator - well known in western scientific publications, could be applied to assessing the sustainability of regional development. The author made an effort, through a case-study for the Samara Oblast, to measure a real speed of national saving after deduction of human investments, depletion of physical capital, natural resources and diseconomies of environment pollution.
The paper analyzes how and to what degree the economic interests of regional governments and businesses are coordinated in a region. We showed the necessity to develop instruments for quantitative estimation of regional economic interests, and proposed the approach based on the mathematical tools of rank statistics and a data base provided by regional bodies of federal statistics. As well we presented a technique to assess to what degree the economic interests of subjects of regional industrial policy are coordinated.
The paper considers what brought to economic crisis of the coal industry in the eastern part of the Donets Basin, and describes major ways of restructuring this industry. The development trends of such depressed region and the factors providing socio-economic stabilization are also shown.
The paper analyzes how the changes in Russian foreign trade policy influence on the situation in a forestry complex of a macroregion (a case-study for Siberia). We focused on the market of China considered as a major trade partner of Siberia. We also analyzed the supply-and-demand equilibrium of Chinese lumber market and the relatively static influence of tariff rates on the volume of forestry export, and showed the effective and ineffective mechanisms for the limber export management. We present the assessment of one of the housing industries - industry of wooden houses, and consider its development as a promising variant for Russia if the protectionist trade policy continues.
The author analyzes how the role which governmental authorities play in national economy recently changed that resulted in emergence of a new institutional system. The theory of institutional transformations provides for the ideas that economic efficiency is in balance with principles of social justice and this balance is based on such institutional system where market mechanisms are combined with distributing ones that allows higher development of human potential of the country and which has shaped dually: the western market economy modified into "social market" since XX century and Russian distributing economy - into "a liberal distributing system" since 2000.
The paper shows how the analysis of demographic safety could help in identifying the conditions necessary to neutralize present demographic threats and to prevent new ones. We presented here a classification of demographic threats for Russia, most crucial impacts of such threats, indicators and their threshold levels which could be computed on the base of federal regional statistics both for Russia or any region. Such indicators allow diagnosing the demographic sphere and could be considered as benchmarks in the development and implementation of federal or regional demographic policies.
The paper considers the agricultural development in Siberia over long time horizon. We used the archival data of the agricultural censuses of 1917 and 1920 for Siberia, current statistics and preliminary data of the Russian Agricultural Census 2006. This allowed us to show positive and destructive periods in the development of agriculture in Siberia. Our special focus was the reforms of the 1990th when Siberian communities had suffered the greatest damage ever seen in the history of this sector. We also formulated present problems of rural communities and quantified them.
The paper discusses the issues of construction of the Circumpolar Trunk Railway. The urgency of this project is caused by the necessity to develop the Russian North Pacific Shelf. The alternative transportation variants are also considered. Applying the theory of the decision making under uncertainty and an indefinite sets technique, we proved that the construction of the trunk railway is a preferable variant.
The paper gives a methodical approach to assessment of the demand for fuel and energy made within the framework of the development of long-term strategies for the fuel and energy complex in Russia and its macroregions. Special attention is given to the price elasticity of demand for energy sources since it is vital to be included in strategies as a price and demand do depend on each other in any market economy. This approach was applied to assessment of the demand for gas in eastern regions of the country.
The paper analyzes the principles and approaches to organization of the public audit of local governments being made by applying such criteria as the resulting effect indices and public opinions on quality of services these local governments provide.
The paper describes a technique to evaluate how efficient the socio-economic development management is in a municipal unit. The technique is based on comparative estimations of the socio-economic development management in different municipal unit within a region. A case-study for the Altai Krai made by applying this technique, and the results obtained are presented in the paper.
We analyze what new has been observed in the regional studies bibliography compiled in the EconLit Internet-catalogue. The novelty criteria applied are the absolute and comparative growths of publications of all kinds and the number of new interdisciplinary publications concerning regional issues. We proposed a technique to identify new areas of regional studies through the analysis of intensity of the publication activity and of how often the software utilities were applied to textural-morphological analysis or works with bibliographic data bases.
The paper considers the principle provisions of the Draft Concept of a new regional policy in the Russian Federation developed by the RF Ministry for Regional Development in the summer 2008. Our general conclusion is that the present document is much more advanced than the previous one based on substituting the principles providing equalization of the levels of the socio-economic development in regions for a "polarized development" policy which assumes the support to "regions-locomotives".
The paper is devoted to the methodological tools serving to model different variants of the regional socio-economic policy aimed at creating the necessary preconditions for sustainable development in regions. We offer an indicative planning model, apply it to a resource region, and describe mechanisms which allow of maintaining a sustainable development trajectory for the region having exhausted local natural resources.
The paper analyses the issues of federalism in Russia such as the advantages and conditions for its successful adaptation, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the limitations which have been observed during the time of intensive economic reforms and the following period of stabilization and economic growth.
The paper presents the findings of investigation concerning retrospective tendencies of how a spatial structure of the Russian economy changed and how it will change in long-term perspective. We analyze the main factors which define the difference of the production and consumer indicators in regions, including the predominant ones such as sectoral specialization of regions, external-economic factors and structures of the added values obtained by different economic agents. We assess the regional tendencies of such changing structures, and show that a relatively instable character of these indicators has been caused by the quality of Russian statistics at present.
The paper considers the alternative development strategies - inertial and innovative - for the Siberian Federal District. We assume that the SFD economy is adequately provided with labor resources. Both strategies are analyzed by taking into account a demographic factor and assuming that there is labor migration in the region. In our research, we applied a multi-industry optimization development model. The assessment of strategies was carried out on the base of a system of models aimed at researching and forecasting money flows.
We applied a small modified simulating model to assess the multiplier effect obtained by regulating measures made at the regional level to provide food security. Our assessments are given in their dynamics up to 2010 within a case-study for the Altai area. The model calculations show that higher employment gives rise to higher incomes of the population and better economic availability of food. At that, the increase of regional fiscal expenditures would provoke a higher volume of available food 1.58 years later in average.
The paper analyses the population dynamics and peculiarities of reproduction of a middle class on the base of the data presented in the Russian Economic Climate and Public Health Monitoring. The Russian middle class includes 16-20% of all the population, and it is a rather stable fragment in a socio-economic structure of the population. In the 1990s, this class remained unworn by unfavorable socio-economic environment and had high indicators of its reproduction.
The paper describes the findings of investigation concerning the differences between the population's health indicators in the units of the Russian Federation. On the base of retrospective information and applying statistical methods, we attempted to find basic reasons of the health degradation in regions, and concluded that all reasons are interrelated, an ecological factor being dominating.
We present the assessments of links between the indicators of push-pull labor migration in the Moscow area, per capita incomes and the remoteness of the regions from Moscow. We show the level, a spatial pattern of commuters working in Moscow, their shady incomes and a volume of such passenger traffic as well as the difference of the commuters' incomes employed in Moscow and those employed outside.
Within the framework of the case-study for Academgorodok, we consider the issues of how a local community of an academic type functions. Having analyzed the people's opinion on the changing living environment and development prospects for Academgorodok, we could conclude that principle characteristics of this local community remained valid, and thus they had to be taken into account if some external intervention were to be made.
The paper analyses the public opinion on how Academgorodok near Novosibirsk might develop, and what role the Technology Park could play in promoting its development. We discuss the most urgent problems to be resolved for better development of Academgorodok; how informed the residents are about the community development projects and their opinion on these projects; and people's expectations for the Technology Park Project, as well as their understandings of what should be done to promote the development of Academgorodok and to maintain its specialness.
