ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF THE BANKING SECTOR’S CREDIT PORTFOLIO
Vladimir Z. Balikoev, Ekaterina I. Chekranova
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Keywords: сredit portfolio, banking sector, loan structure, macroeconomic factors, mortgage lending, financial stability
Abstract
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the structure and dynamics of the credit portfolio of the Russian banking sector in 2020-2024 and provides a forecast of its development up to 2030, taking into account key macroeconomic factors. The study is based on statistical and comparative analysis, as well as elements of economic modeling that reflect the impact of interest rates, inflation, and government support measures on different lending segments. A comparative analysis of credit portfolio structures in Russia, the United States, the Eurozone, and China reveals that structural differences are determined by economic models, the level of financial market development, and the degree of state involvement in resource allocation. The findings indicate that the credit portfolio structure reflects not only the current state of the economy but also its institutional characteristics. The proposed approach to credit portfolio forecasting, based on differentiated sensitivity of lending segments to macroeconomic factors, contributes to the development of methodologies for analyzing banking sector dynamics and can be applied in further research on financial stability and monetary policy.
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