Home – Home – Jornals – Region: Economics and Sociology 2026 number 3

The article examines the problem of long-term forecasting for large-scale infrastructure projects, using as an example the spatial development of the Arctic regions and the maritime transport infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) within the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor. Given the heightened state-level focus on the NSR’s development against the backdrop of intensifying global competition for the Arctic, the relevance of the research problem and contemporary challenges for Russia are highlighted. The aim of this work is to structure the problem of long-term forecasting in the implementation of unique infrastructure projects, using the Arctic and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor as flagship economic initiatives under conditions ofsignificant risk and environmental uncertainty. The paper reviews global and Russian research practices concerning large-scale infrastructure projects, taking into account their impact on economic development and other spheres of national economies, as well as the specifics of research on Russia’s Arctic territories and the development of the NSR as a driver of economic growth. Criteria are identified for assessing the alignment of the Arctic and the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor with the attributes of an economic flagship. Scenario-based approaches to Arctic studies are analyzed, and the conceptual outlines of external environment scenarios are formulated. Integrating infrastructure projects into these scenario frameworks is proposed as a method to mitigate the impact of risk and uncertainty in long-term forecasting. Considering the specificities of research methodologies for large-scale projects and the unique nature of the given infrastructure initiative, the article formulates further research approaches. These are based on system analysis tools for assessing and forecasting long-term sustainable development under the influence of external risk factors and uncertainties.