Time series analysis of climatic parameters and vegetation dynamics using MODIS and ERA-5 datasets (a case study of Himachal Pradesh, India)
P. KUMAR, P. RANJAN, S. ANAND, ASHWANI, RAI A. KUMAR, A. RAI, S. JUNAWA
University of Delhi, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, New Delhi, India
Keywords: correlation, temperature, snowfall, remote sensing, climate change, Himalayas
Abstract
Climate change poses a serious challenge to sustainable development, particularly in sensitive regions such as the Greater Himalayas. The article considers the state of Himachal Pradesh and analyzes temporal and spatial trends in key environmental parameters (temperature, total precipitation, snowfall, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land surface temperature (LST)) for the periods from 1940 to 2023 for climatic parameters and from 2000 to 2023 for NDVI and LST. Using remote sensing data from the Copernicus Climate Data Archive and MODIS, combined with statistical analysis, the research uncovers noteworthy trends, including an overall increase in temperature and fluctuations in precipitation and snowfall with a decreasing trend over the years. To analyze vegetation dynamics, NDVI and the total area in square kilometers were calculated for each month of the years 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2023. It was noted that, in lower elevation areas, overall vegetation cover increased every month except for July, when a decrease of 307,74 km2 was observed from 2001 to 2023, indicating a healthy ecosystem. Conversely, a typical trend in land surface temperature (LST) was found, with the highest temperatures observed in June and the lowest in January. The findings have revealed a positive correlation between NDVI and LST, indicating that vegetation cover responds to climate change. The research results demonstrate that, despite the increase in vegetation cover, the region remains vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, requiring effective conservation strategies to mitigate its adverse effects.
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