SEASONAL DYNAMICS OF FOREST FIRES IN RUSSIA: DATES OF FIRE-HAZARD SEASONS AND FIRE FREQUENCY PEAKS FOR 2015–2025
I. M. Sekerin1, A. M. Eritsov1, G. V. Kuksin2, S. V. Zalesov1
1Ural State Forest Engineering University, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
2Wildfire Prevention Center, Moscow, Russian Federation
Keywords: forest fire frequency, fire season, fire frequency peak, area covered by fire
Abstract
The analysis included indicators for the start and end of fire-hazard seasons, fire areas at detection and suppression, dates and times of detection, containment, and suppression, causes of fires, geographic coordinates, and fire frequency peaks in six groups of regions for the periods from 2015 to 2019 and 2021 to 2025. It was found that the start of the fire-hazard season has shifted by 10-20 days over the past 10 years in the central regions and the Urals. In the south, the dates of the fire-hazard season has shifted to such an extent that the fire-hazard season can be considered a year-round phenomenon ( p < 0.30). Based on the nature of the distribution and intensity of fire frequency peaks in the season four main types can be distinguished: unimodal - one clearly defined peak in July-August, typical of northern regions, such as the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions and the Sokha Republic (Yakutia); bimodal - two peaks of approximately equal strength, one in spring and one in autumn-winter, typical of southern regions, particularly the Krasnoyarsk Territory and steppe regions; double-peaked - two peaks of unequal strength, one in spring and one in August-September, typical of the central and Ural regions (Moscow, Sverdlovsk, and Tver regions); multimodal - several peaks of varying magnitude, unevenly distributed throughout the season, typical of the coastal regions of the Far East (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krais). These patterns must be taken into account when planning forest fire protection.
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