SCENARIO FORECASTING OF POVERTY LEVEL DYNAMICS IN THE REGIONS OF THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT BASED ON AN AGENT-ORIENTED MODEL
A.G. Karimov1, M.M. Nizamutdinov1, Z.A. Davletova2
1Ufa Federal Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russia
2Ufa University of Science and Technology, Ufa, Russia
Keywords: poverty level, Volga Federal District regions, agent-based modeling, scenario experiments, poverty level dynamics forecast, management measures to overcome poverty
Abstract
In modern conditions, the level ofpoverty has become one of the key factors in the social well-being of the population and determines the effectiveness of state social policy in general. Using the example of the Volga Federal District, the article examines the main problems and trends in the formation of poverty among the working population in the regions of the Russian Federation and justifies the use of agent-based modeling tools for forecasting the dynamics of poverty levels. The article also discusses the structure of the data used and the logic of building a special agent-based model. As part of the testing of the developed model, the results of experiments on assessing the dynamics of poverty levels in the regions of the Volga Federal District for the period up to 2030 are presented, based on various scenario options. Based on the conducted experimental studies, a general assessment of the dynamics of poverty levels in the regions of the Volga Federal District is provided, and the regions are grouped according to their poverty levels. The necessary management measures are justified to reduce poverty levels for each group, including for the regions at highest risk.
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