A study of the possibility of predicting water temperature using a linear statistical model for the Lena River
A.I. Krylova1, N.A. Lapteva2
1Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of the Siberian Branch of the RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
2State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology "Vector", Koltsovo, Russia
Keywords: Lena River, water temperature, air temperature, linear statistical model, spatial variability, heat flow
Abstract
Under the current global warming, an increase in the water temperature in rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean is becoming a significant factor, which not only affects the functioning of river ecosystems, but also increases river heat flux into the ocean. The latter could result in redistribution of heat over the ocean and further climate change. Based on decade average values of water temperature from 13 hydrological stations in the Middle and Lower Lena from 1990 to 2011, we study the relationship between air and water temperatures during the open-water period with the use of a regression approach. Quantitative estimates of river water temperatures under the climate change are performed. The use of air temperature as a predictor in a linear equation enabled us to assess monthly average water temperatures with acceptable accuracy. The results can be used in simulation of currents in the Laptev Sea.
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