Typology of regions of the Siberian Federal District according to the degree of sustainability and adaptability of tourism systems during the periods of crises in the 21st century
A.Yu. ALEKSANDROVA1, V.E. DOMBROVSKAYA2
1Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
2Tver State University, Tver, Russia
Keywords: tourism, economic crisis, response model, adaptive potential, sustainable development, methods of mathematical statistics
Abstract
Socioeconomic and foreign policy turbulence poses a challenge for the scientific community of developing scientifically based approaches to assessing the sustainability of regional tourism systems, their adaptive management, and creating mechanisms to increase their sustainability. Of particular interest in this context are the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD), which have significant, but unevenly realized, tourism potential. This study focuses on the features of response of the tourism sector of the SFD subjects to the crisis shocks of 2000-2024, identified through the analysis of the dynamics of overnight stays. The work aims not only to diagnose the levels of regional sustainability, but also to identify key factors in their ability to adapt and recover from the crisis. The study is based on the combined application of two complementary methods: a multicriteria analysis of long-term trends in the indicator of tourist overnight stays; and the identification and analysis of specific response models (V-, U-, L-, W-types) to economic crises. Using the results of the analysis, areas of consistency in the findings obtained applying both methods, as well as illusory contradictions explained when proceeding to a qualitative analysis of the dynamics were identified and interpreted. Based on the synthesis of methods, an integrated classification of the SFD regions was developed. In addition to describing the current state, the resulting typology reflects the dynamics of the regions’ adaptive potential. The research results can be used by regional government bodies to develop differentiated anti-crisis policies in the tourism sector, thereby facilitating the implementation of the national project “Tourism and Hospitality” and the state program “Tourism Development”.
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