Probabilistic Estimate of Seismic Monitoring Sensitivity at Apatite-Nepheline Deposits
V. E. Asming1, A. Yu. Motorin1, A. A. Streshnev2, A. V. Fedorov1, I. S. Fedorov1
1Kola Branch of Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Apatity, Russia
2Apatit’s Division in Kirovsk, Kirovsk, Russia
Keywords: detection, empirical diagram, detection probability p, monte-carlo method, seismic stations, network optimization, induced seismicity, seismic monitoring, khibiny massif
Abstract
The article describes the method to estimate sensitivity of local seismic monitoring networks in two underground mines at the Khibiny Massif: Kirovsk and Rasvumchorr. The method uses empirical data of induced seismicity monitoring. At each monitoring station, based on the behavior of seismic waves and the distance to epicenters of seismic events, detection probability diagrams were plotted for seismic events and different ranges of seismic energies. The diagrams were used for plotting the probability of detection maps for a seismic event and a certain energy range. This approach has a few advantages. First, the input data may be records of production blasts and other sources rather than natural seismic events. Second, the method allows using the averaged probability diagrams for the decision-making on deployment and expansion of monitoring networks in mines. It is shown that monitoring networks ensure reliable recording probability (95%) only for the events with an energy higher than 104 J; however, there is a potential of increasing the sensitivity and reliability of recoding events with an energy of 102 J in case of inclusion of additional monitoring stations.
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