River runoff dynamics in the lower Yenisei basin under a changing climate
D.A. PRYSOV, A.V. MUSOKHRANOVA
V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Keywords: hydrological regime, river runoff, temperature trends, precipitation, permafrost, catchment areas
Abstract
Based on meteorological station data for 1952-2020, long-term changes in the main climate indicators in the study area of the lower Yenisei basin were analyzed. Air temperature trends are characterized by a steady increase at a rate of 0,39-0,45 ° C/10 years; for most of the meteorological stations under investigation, an increase in atmospheric precipitation was noted for the period from 1966 to 2020 amounting to 2,4-32,6 mm/10 years. The influence of climate on the current conditions of formation and ongoing changes in the regimes of annual and winter low-water runoff of the lower Yenisei river basin was studied. It is shown that the noticeable climate warming in the lower Yenisei basin over the past decades has been accompanied not only by a rise in air temperature and a slight increase in precipitation, but also by a change in the annual and winter low-water runoff. Using hydro- and meteorological data, an analysis was conducted of changes in the average annual and average low-water runoff for the entire observation period (1939-2020) and for the period of modern air temperature increase (1976-2020). The analysis of changes in winter low-water runoff by years for different periods revealed that, since the 1940s, all the studied rivers showed a tendency toward an increase in this indicator from 0,13 to 1,25 mm/year. The annual runoff also increased on all rivers from 0,09 to 0,93 mm/year. This indicates a general trend of increasing river runoff in the study area of the lower Yenisei basin. According to the results obtained, the trend in the winter low-water runoff during the period of modern climate warming is more pronounced compared to the annual runoff. This demonstrates that permafrost thawing is becoming a more significant factor in the formation of the river runoff in the lower Yenisei basin.
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