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Geography and Natural Resources

2026 year, number 1

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the ice regime of Lake Baikal

O.P. OSIPOVA1, N.S. DOMBROVSKAYA2
1V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
2Federal State Budgetary Institution Irkutsk Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: Baikal, ice cover duration, North Atlantic cyclogenesis, synoptic situation, ice regime

Abstract

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the ice regime of Lake Baikal from 1952 to 2025 was studied. The timings of freeze-up and ice break-up of the lake in the southern, middle, and northern parts of Baikal were analyzed. Synoptic situations preceding the late freeze-up were also analyzed. It was found that changes in the timing of freezing and breaking up of the lake ice led to a reduction of the period of ice cover. Since the mid-1970s, the dates of freeze-up on Baikal have become later and have shifted from the end of December and the beginning of January to the end of January. The ice break-up dates have shifted from mid- and late May to early May and late April. Over the past 70 years, the period of ice cover on Baikal has decreased by 19 days. The maximum ice cover duration values were observed from 1955 to 1975, the minimum ones have been recorded starting from the 1980s. The shortest period of ice cover occurred in 2025. Compared to the average long-term values, the period of ice cover was 29 days shorter in the southern part, 38 days shorter in the middle part, and 22 days shorter in the north of Lake Baikal. The influence of zonal atmospheric circulation on the lake’s ice regime was revealed. Late freeze-up is preceded by the latitudinal transport of warm air masses from the Atlantic, southwestern transport of air masses in the middle and lower troposphere from the regions of Central Asia, active North Atlantic cyclogenesis, and activation of the upper frontal zone. The weakening of the Siberian anticyclone has a significant impact on the ice regime of Lake Baikal.