Complex territorial risks of the Baikal region development
I.V. BYCHKOV1, V.V. MOSKVICHEV2, U.S. POSTNIKOVA2, O.V. TASEIKO3
1Matrosov Institute for System Dynamics and Control Theory, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
2Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
3Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Keywords: sustainable development, basic territorial risk, natural hazards, anthropogenic threats, territorial safety, socio-natural-technogenic system
Abstract
Sustainable development of the Baikal region requires a detailed analysis of the types of hazards and risks that can disrupt the unique ecological system of Lake Baikal and the natural landscapes of its water protection zone. This study focuses on analyzing social, natural, and technogenic hazards based on a risk-oriented approach. A general description of the territory and the main causes of natural, technogenic and biosocial emergencies in the Baikal region are provided. Each municipality within the territory under consideration is represented as a socio-natural-technogenic system characterized by a set of basic territorial risks, the analysis of which was performed taking into account statistical data on the number of hazardous events that occurred and the damage caused. The obtained basic risk assessments are the basis for determining the complex territorial risk, represented as a radius vector in a three-dimensional space of the socio-, eco-, and technosphere. The approach allows for a quantitative assessment of the contribution of each sphere of the socio-natural-technogenic system to the complex risk indicator and simplifies the graphical representation of the system under consideration. The highest complex risk values were obtained for the cities of the Baikal region (Bratsk, Irkutsk, Ulan-Ude, and Chita), where the primary hazard is associated with technogenic incidents. The elevated complex risk indicators for municipal districts are due to the high frequency of natural fires and floods, as well as seismic hazard. The assessment of complex territorial risks is the basis for predicting the sustainable development of territories under intense anthropogenic impact. The obtained results can be used in developing disaster risk reduction measures and socioeconomic development programs for the Baikal region.
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