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Region: Economics and Sociology

2025 year, number 3

ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF FACTORS ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF MIGRATION FLOWS IN THE REGION

I.V. Naumov, A.A. Bychkova
Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences RAS, Yekaterinburg, Russia
Keywords: migration flows, region, factors, regional development, modeling, autocorrelation analysis, autoregressive analysis

Abstract

The article considers socio-economic factors of population migration in municipalities on the example of the Sverdlovsk Oblast. The study is based on the concentration analysis of the spatial distribution of migration flows using a combination of autocorrelation and regression modeling methods. The purpose of the study is to identify the significant factors affecting migration flows of population, taking into account the spatial relationship between municipalities. The main objectives of the analysis include the study and identification of statistically significant indicators affecting the resettlement of people. Migration flows have a noticeable impact on the demographic structure of the population, as well as on the state of local and regional labor markets. During the study period from 2010 to 2022, uneven distribution and increased concentration of migrants in large municipalities increased the outflow of population from sparsely populated areas. The use of a set of methods - assessment of migration flows concentration, spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis - allows us to fully determine the zones of concentration of migration flows and identify factors affecting resettlement within the Sverdlovsk Oblast with the further purpose of using the study to adjust and plan the development of the territory.