Simulation of aerosol optical properties using an ensemble of solutions taking into account the standard measurement uncertainty of input parameters
P.N. Zenkova
V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: aerosol, empirical model, optical properties, measurement uncertainty, ensemble modeling, Monte Carlo method, phase function, single scattering albedo
Abstract
Retrieval of atmospheric aerosol optical properties from limited data volume is a crucial task for assessing radiative forcing and simulating climate in high latitudes. This work presents, for the first time, an approach to simulation of aerosol optical characteristics based on a limited set of measured input parameters using a representative ensemble of solutions. The numerical experiment involves comparison of aerosol optical properties for a typical summer background haze calculated from averaged measured parameters assumed as “reference”. In each ensemble realization, a random deviation within the range of instrumental uncertainty was introduced for each input parameter, followed by calculation of optical properties. It is shown that, for the chosen model scenario, 200 ensemble members are sufficient to achieve retrieval accuracy of 2%. The results are applicable for evaluating radiatively significant atmospheric properties based on airborne and shipborne measurements, and for validation of satellite retrievals and climate models. The proposed technique can also be used in regional aerosol pollution monitoring applications.
|
