SINGLE-PERIOD REVENUE FORECAST BASED ON DISCRETE INFLATION MODEL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
Vasily V. Belykh
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Keywords: sustainable growth, growth factors, Brownian motion, uncertainty, inflation, forecast, revenue
Abstract
A method of predicting revenue based on a sustainable growth model, taking into account the change in the cost of borrowed funds, prices for products and means of production, has been proposed. The stochastic modification of the model is used, taking into account economic uncertainty. The forecasting horizon is limited to the period specified in the annual accounting reporting. The described method of forecasting does not have a long memory, so the resulting result is not tied to the previously prevailing trend. To take advantage of the new approach, time-intensive calculations and special training will not be required.
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