Home – Home – Jornals – Geography and Natural Resources 2025 number 1

Two stages of studying the phenomenon of stability of natural ecosystems on a zonal-regional scale are outlined on the basis of the patterns of their spatial organization. Two well-known methods of studying geographical objects (information theory and the theory of “fuzzy” sets) were used to consistently identify climatic niches of plant communities, typify them, and identify their adaptive potential in a changing climate. The empirical-statistical models describing the resistance of forest associations and formations of the Volga basin to hydrothermal signals are presented. At the first stage, the potential stability of forests is characterized as the most important property of the regional bioclimatic system. According to the structure of climatic niches of vegetation, four main types of the most general category of potential stability of forest formations were identified, and corresponding estimates of CO₂ absorption by forests from the atmosphere were made. The presented ideas about the bioclimatic system, as well as the methods of its modeling, underlie the regional paleo-forecasting concept in the field of geographical ecology developed by the author. At the second stage, the stability of zonal-regional phytocenological systems was considered using the measures of displaying the diversity of states of environmental factors. The use of information and statistical analysis of intercomponent relationships made it possible to build vector graph-analytical models of climatic niches of classes and groups of plant formations in the Volga basin. Ecological groups of forest associations with different ability to maintain their qualitative certainty, the level of biological cycle and adsorption potential in a changing climate are distinguished.