Home – Home – Jornals – Geography and Natural Resources 2024 number 3

A working concept of geosystem monitoring of forest ecosystems under modern global warming is outlined. It is planned to carry out a full cycle of monitoring in its classical triad of Izrael-Gerasimov triad: “observation (state assessment) - control (forecast) - management (adaptation, feedback, regulation)”. The program of scientific research involves developing empirical and statistical models of the state of forest ecosystems in the past, present and future as well as uncovering the mechanisms of forest forward and backward linkages with climate. The models should describe the spatial diversity of the local and regional responses of forest cover to climatic signals as well as the regulation patterns of the carbon cycle by forest biogeosystems. According to the Paris Agreement (2015) on climate change, it is planned to solve the two-pronged problem of “adsorption-adaptation”: quantify the ecological resources of boreal and nemoral forests in mitigating modern warming and calculate sustainability parameters of forests to a changing climate as a measure of their adaptive potential. In terms of solving this problem, a working algorithm for geosystem monitoring of forests is proposed, which describes a successive change in the stages of observation, forecasting and regulation, with the identification of mitigation and adaptation effects on the carbon balances of forest ecosystems. The working tool of analysis is represented by a sliding (pendulum) operating system where observation and forecasting are repeated many times, and the basic landscape-ecological relationships are regarded as mechanisms of the metabolic response of forest communities to climate change. The program presented describes one of the ways to solve the main scientific and practical task of monitoring, i. e. to establish the ecological potential of forest ecosystems in given zonal and regional conditions for the transition to adaptive forestry.