Home – Home – Jornals – Contemporary Problems of Ecology 2024 number 3

The spatial divergence of climatic changes necessitates the creation of predictive models of the state of vegetation cover. Our proposed solution for spatial modeling of the biological productivity of natural ecosystems creates the basis for further quantitative assessment of the potential absorption of CO₂, which is currently considered one of the most urgent environmental issues. In the proposed work, using the methods of geo-analysis of growing conditions, an original technology for modeling the potential spread of biocenoses and their productivity has been developed, reflecting the internal attractor of the development of biocenoses under the influence of local hydrological and climatic conditions of their growth. The methodology was implemented for the territory of the south-east of Western Siberia within the framework of the publicly available GIS Saga based on a digital terrain model and data from the WorldClim 2.0 climate reanalysis. To forecast data for the period of the third decade of the XXI century, V. V. Paromov’s regional climate forecast was used on the basis of an adaptive model - the exponential smoothing method. Verification of the simulation results was carried out on the basis of the database “Productivity of ecosystems of Northern Eurasia”. As a result, spatially distributed data were obtained in the form of rasters with high spatial resolution for the average long-term potential bioproductivity according to reanalysis data for the period 1970-2000 and predicted data for the period 2021-2030. Both positive and negative trends of potential bioproductivity for various natural zones of the south-east of Western Siberia have been revealed, due to the spatial divergence of changes in heat and energy resources and precipitation over the territory. In general, the observed warming in sufficiently drained areas contributes to an increase, and in hydro-morphic to a decrease in the biological productivity of agro and biocenoses.