KUZBASS ECONOMY: RESILIENCE FORECAST AMID THE SYSTEMIC CHALLENGES
Yu.A. Fridman, G.N. Rechko, E.Yu. Loginova
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: Kuzbass, coal-producing territory, strategic challenges, development scenarios, regional economic resilience, structural policy
Abstract
The existing open export-oriented economic model of Kemerovo Oblast-Kuzbass had taken shape by the early 2000s, providing relative resilience to this territory, the largest coal producer in Russia, over the past two decades. However, with an ongoing global energy transition and shifting geopolitical paradigm, the region now finds itself in turmoil and must adapt to new realities. To address this, we have developed three development scenarios for Kuzbass until 2035, all assuming the continued exceptional leverage of the coal sector in the region. Through analysis and scenario quantification against Kuzbass’s economic resilience from 2000 to 2035, we can conclude that a multisector economic model, integrated within an interregional cooperation framework, appears most favorable. Despite projecting modest growth rates, this scenario offers an opportunity for Kuzbass to mitigate strategic challenges and pursue sustainable long-term development. These results obtained can inform the region’s structural policy.
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