Decomposition of the latitudinal variation in the long-term average temperature using data from weather stations in the Northern Hemisphere and on astronomical insolation in 1897-2010
V.A. Tartakovsky, V.G. Maximov, V.A. Krutikov
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: astronomical insolation, latitudinal temperature variation, polynomial regression, latitudinal temperature trend
Abstract
Temperature data at weather stations in the Northern Hemisphere and astronomical insolation data are ordered by increasing latitude and analyzed together for different samples between 1897 and 2010. By step-by-step regression of the latitudinal variation in the long-term average temperature to a polynomial of astronomical insolation, a latitudinal temperature trend determined by the Sun and fluctuating regression residuals, in which individual features of data appear, are identified. The absence of interaction of these components is numerically achieved for any samples. It has been established that in the Northern Hemisphere for the available samples, the latitudinal trend in the long-term average temperature completely determines the warming and contributes about 82% to the total temperature dispersion. The boundaries of areas where temperatures are above and below the latitudinal trend in the long-term average temperatures reveal known geographic structures, thereby verifying the trend.
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