Modelling the climate changes and atmospheric ozone variations in XX-XXI by CCM SOCOLv3
M.A. Usacheva1,2, S.P. Smyshlyaev1,2, V.A. Zubov2,3, E.V. Rozanov2,4
1Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg, Russia
2Saint-Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia
3The Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg, Russia
4Davos Physico-Meteorological Laboratory and the World Radiation Center PMOD/WRC, Davos-Dorf, Switzerland
Keywords: numerical modeling, stratospheric ozone, ozone-depleting substance, climate change, Montreal Protocol, solar activity, stratospheric aerosol
Abstract
To estimate the relative contribution of the main chemical and physical processes to the observed variability of climate and atmospheric gas composition in 1980-2020, numerical experiments were conducted with the chemical and climatic model (CMC) SOCOLv3. The following factors of changes in ozone content and atmospheric temperature were studied: changes in the content of ozone-depleting substances; changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean surface temperature and sea ice area; variations in solar activity, and changes in atmospheric aerosol content. To estimate the relative role of these factors, calculations were carried out on scenarios taking into account each factor separately and all factors together. According to the results of numerical experiments, the relative contribution of various factors to changes in the temperature of the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, as well as the ozone content was revealed for the period from 1980 to 2020. The model results have been compared with the satellite SBUV data.
|
