Assessing meteorological factors of fire hazard on the territory of the Southern Urals
D.Yu. VASILYEV1,2,3, S.E. KUCHEROV3,4, V.A. SEMENOV5,6, A.A. CHIBILEV3
1Ufa State Aviation Technical University, Ufa, Russia
2A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences,, Moscow, Russia
3Institute of Steppe, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Orenburg, Russia
4Ufa Institute of Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, Russia
5A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow,Russia
6Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow,Russia
Keywords: air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, forest resources, fire hazard indices, wildfires, remote sensing of the Earth
Abstract
Using instrumental observation data from meteorological stations located in the Southern Urals, a comprehensive fire hazard index and a forest fire hazard index for the 1978 to 2020 warm season (May-September) were calculated. The analysis was based on the daily values of surface air temperature, amount of precipitation, dew point deficit, average wind speed, as well as gain and number of days after the last rain. A correlation analysis between critical values of fire hazard indices and the forest fire actual data was carried out, revealing a close relationship between the extreme values of fire hazard indices and abnormally hot years. Fire hazard indices reflect the set of meteorological conditions conducive to the occurrence of fires in different ways. The forest fire hazard index, in contrast to the fire hazard complex indicator, in addition to the meteorological index, takes into account environmental factors. The calculated values of fire hazard indices were structured in the form of a database that can be used in meteorological forecasts to assess and predict fire conditions based on weather conditions. Comparison of the present data with results of wildfire space monitoring from the Terra-MODIS satellite are presented. An increase in dangerous meteorological conditions from 1995 to 2000 and a decrease in the number of days with critical values of fire hazard indices from 2000 to 2005 were established.
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