DETERMINANTS OF SCIENTIFIC THINKING FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SOCIAL EPISTEMOLOGY (on the example of forecasting climate change)
Anna Yurievna Storozhuk
Institute of Philosophy and Law, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 8 Nikolaeva str., Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: social epistemology, forecasting, causality, climate change
Abstract
The article analyses epistemologically significant assumptions in the scientific thinking by the example of comparing climate change projections with its actual changes. The existence of a large difference between projections and reality is shown, the reasons for this difference are identified. It has been established that the characteristics of the scientific thinking are largely determined by the mechanistic paradigm, which makes it possible to perceive the processes taking place in complex multifactorial systems like the climate in a limited way. The climate is characterized by non-linearity, the existence of positive feedback loops, various types of instability, etc. These processes cannot be described through the deterministic paradigm and require the development and application of new theories.
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