The quality of modern numerical visibility forecast methods
G.A. Zarochentsev1, K.G. Rubinstein1,2
1Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia
2Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Keywords: fog, meteorological visibility, mesoscale modeling, transfer of moisture in the surface layer
Abstract
The paper presents estimates of recent numerical visibility forecast methods in the atmosphere. METAR reports for 786 airports in Europe and central Russia for the period 01.02.2020-01.08.2020 were used as visibility standards. The estimates were summarized in three ranges: poor visibility (0-1500 m), satisfactory (1500-3000), and good (3000 or more) for certain regions of Western Europe and the European territory of Russia. It is shown that the forecast of poor visibility by all the considered methods for up to 36-48 hours can be satisfactory. For a longer period, the accuracy drops noticeably, and the forecast using the method presented by the authors shows high accuracy for low visibility in most regions. The rest of the methods make it possible to predict good visibility.
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