GAME THEORY AND EXPERT SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY APPLIED IN ASSESSING THE PUBLIC EFFICIENCY OF LARGE-SCALE REGIONAL-TRANSPORT PROJECTS
S.A. Bykadorov1, E.B. Kibalov2
1Siberian Transport University, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: system analysis, J. Kornai paradigm, large-scale project, public efficiency, uncertainty, decision theory, regional-transport projects, Lena-Kamchatka railway, Transpolar railway, design plan, Russian Railways
Abstract
The article shows how game theory and expert system technologies make it possible, using specially developed tools, to compare the public efficiency of large-scale projects in a situation of radical (non-stochastic) uncertainty within J. Kornai’s system paradigm. The proposed approach combines the ideas of the well-known methods PATTERN, cost-effectiveness, and Saaty AHP with some original authors’ solutions. The resulting software products serve as a means of support in complex investment decision-making. To exemplify their application, we provide experimental estimates for the comparative public efficiency of the Transpolar and Lena-Kamchatka railways.
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