Interregional Input-Output Optimization Model as a Tool for Evaluating the Efficiency of Large-Scale Railway Projects
V.F. BUZULUTSKOV1, M.V. PYATAEV2, A.N. SIZOV3
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Siberian Transport University, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
3Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: программно-модельный комплекс, отраслевая стратегия, железнодорожный транспорт, сценарный подход, макроэкономическая оценка, крупномасштабные железнодорожные проекты, ОМММ-ЖДТ, program model package, sectoral strategy, rail transport, scenario approach, macroeconomic evaluation, large-scale railway projects, OMMM-RT
Abstract
The article describes a set of tools for an inter-regional input-output optimization model - rail transport (OMMM-RT) used for a macroeconomic evaluation of the consequences of large-scale railway projects (LRWP) and presents a functional diagram for the OMMM-RT informational program model package. We give a formal description of transport networks that makes it possible to model the amount of transport load as a sum of cargo and passenger turnover, which is a headline development indicator in the rail industry. We elaborate an idea to evaluate LRWP (at its front-end phase) from the perspective of a «multilayered» scenario approach where a large-scale project is viewed as an element within the rail industry development strategy while the rail industry itself is embedded in the system of contrasting scenarios for the national economy. For the models of such sort we propose an approximated algorithm aimed at computing investment dynamics in rail industry development, which helps not only track the effect of the LRWP understudy on the industry’s investment dynamics but also compare its investment programs (modeling objects in OMMM-RT) with development programs from other industries, converting load indicators into dynamics.
|
