Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Shifts in Economy of Regions
N.N. MIKHEEVA
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 47, Nakhimovsky av., D-418, Moscow, 117418, Russia
Keywords: структурная политика, экономический рост, метод структурных сдвигов, диверсификация структуры производства, региональные приоритеты структурной политики, прогноз развития федеральных округов, structural policy, economic growth, shift-share analysis, diversification of production structure, regional priorities of structural policy, economic forecast for federal districts
Abstract
The article analyzes approaches to defining the structural policy and its regional aspects. We estimate the impact of shifts in employment and production branch structure on the macroeconomic indicators in macroregions (federal districts) during intensive economic growth and stagnation. We predict how macroregions will develop along the new structural and investment policy. The main hypothesis is that focusing on regional priorities of structural and investment policy and their implementation can ensure an increase in economic growth rates, including reaching the ones expected in the Presidential Decree of May 7, 2018, by 2024. The research methodology is based on shift-share analysis and estimated diversification factors. We use interregional structural-dynamic models to forecast macroeconomic parameters of regional development. Estimating the factor contribution to GRP dynamics and manufacturing industries shows that the national factors take a dominant lead for the period of high growth rates. During stagnation, the contribution of regional factors increases. An analysis of manufacturing industries structure does not reveal any correlation between change in the level of diversification and economic growth rates, neither under economic growth conditions, nor in stagnation. Structural shifts in development are accompanied by a decline in the technology level of production at low growth rates. The article shows that proportions of spatial industrial distribution of investment accumulated in the economy since 2000, formed by an established raw-material export economic model, do not correspond to the priorities in the country’s contemporary development. We define the priorities of structural and investment policy which, when implemented, will ensure growth rates exceeding the world average by 2024 and sustained economic growth in the future.
|
