ESTIMATION OF THE PRODUCTION VOLUME AND INVENTORIES OF A SEASONAL PRODUCTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY OF DEMAND WITH MINIMUM EXPECTED COSTS
V.A. Zaev1, A.V. Logachov1,2,3, O.M. Logachova1,2, S.E. Khrushchev1, M.V. Pudova1
1Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Kamenskaya str., 56, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia
2Siberian State University of Geosystems and Technologies, Ploshhotnogo Street, 10, Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Region, 630108
3Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Akademika Koptyuga Ave., 4, Novosibirsk, Novosibirskaya obl., 630090
Keywords: математическое моделирование, оптимизация, плотность распределения, спрос, объемы производства и запасы продукции, mathematical modeling, optimization, distribution density, demand, production and stocks of products
Abstract
In work on the basis of methods of mathematical modeling the problem of calculation of volume of production and stocks of production in the conditions of uncertainty of the demand, providing the minimal costs connected with storage of unrealized production and loss of the unsatisfied demand is considered. A criterion of efficiency is proposed that minimizes the mathematical expectation of aggregate costs, the relevance of the problem is justified, and the formulation of the optimization problem is formulated. A mathematical model is constructed that takes into account the stochastic nature of demand for products, and a methodology for solving the problem with various combinations of the initial conditions is compiled. An example of the search for an optimal solution with a uniform density of the distribution of demand for products is given.
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