Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Yakutia: a Retrospective Analysis Based on Fuel and Energy Balance Data
T. N. Gavrilyeva1,2, N. A. Petrov3, A. V. Nogovitcyn4, N. V. Pavlov3
1North-Eastern Federal University (NEFU), Yakutsk
2Yakut Scientific Centre SB RAS
3Larionov Institute of the Physical-Technical Problems of the North SB RAS, Yakutsk
4Hokkaido University, Japan
Keywords: мониторинг, региональный кадастр, эмиссия парниковых газов, топливно-энергетический баланс, углеродоёмкость, энергоемкость, валовый региональный продукт, антропогенные факторы, Якутия, Monitoring, regional cadaster, greenhouse gas emissions, fuel and energy balance, carbon intensity, energy intensity, gross regional product, anthropogenic factors, Yakutia
Abstract
To obtain a retrospective aggregated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in the Russian regions, it is possible to use the Fuel and Energy Balance, which includes data on the final consumption of fuel and energy. Retrospective assessments allow to analyze the influence of various socio-economic factors on the dynamics of emissions through correlation regression analysis. In Yakutia, there is a direct correlation between anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and economic growth, as well as the quality and standard of living of the population. It is recommended to use cautiously the Russian statistics before 1995, because at that time the economy was strongly influenced by multidirectional processes, which affects the comparability of data. The indicators of carbon intensity and energy intensity of GRP are closely interrelated. At the same time, carbon intensity is more sensitive to changes in the volumes and structure of fuel and energy resources consumed in the region, i.q. energy intensity to socio-economic dynamics. Northern specificity and severe climate determine a higher level of greenhouse gas emissions in Yakutia compared with the world average. However, the region and Russia as a whole have quite large reserves in reducing emissions. Data from other northern countries can be used as targets of regional programs.
|
