Assessing External Influence on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District
G.D. KOVALEVA1,2, A.V. KOSTIN1,2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 2, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: Сибирский федеральный округ, внешняя торговля, динамические модели экспорта и импорта регионов, мировые цены, валютный курс, санкции, пошаговый регрессионный анализ, корреляции, риски, Siberian Federal District, international trade, dynamic models of regional export and import, world market prices, exchange rate, sanctions, stepwise regression analysis, correlations, risks
Abstract
The article depicts a model to test a hypothesis about the effect of world-market oil prices, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russia sanctions on the international trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District and Russia in general. We present the results of studies on foreign trade dynamics, commodity structure, and regional specific features. An independent result is an experience of using iterative multiple step-by-step regression, which makes it possible to identify a significant set of influencing factors and evaluate how they impact the generation of changes in a dependent variable. The article shows that sanctions had an inconsiderable effect on international trade. We have discovered a connection to sanctions for some regions of the Siberian Federal District but no influence from them on the district’s aggregated trade.
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