Medium-Term Forecasting of the Development of the Buryat Republic with a Dynamic Input-Output Model
A.O. BARANOV1, Z.B.-D. DONDOKOV2, K.P. DYRKHEEV2, V.N. PAVLOV3, V.I. SUSLOV4
1Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 1, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Buryatia Scientific Center, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sakhyanova st., 8, Ulan-Ude, 670047, Russia
3Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya st., 29, Saint-Petersburg, 195251, Russia
4Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: среднесрочное прогнозирование, динамическая межотраслевая модель, экономика Республики Бурятии, medium-term forecasting, dynamic input-output model, economy of the Buryat Republic
Abstract
The article forecasts the development of the economy in the Buryat Repub- lic within 2017-2019, contingent on the aggregate macroeconomic forecast of Russia’s economic development, by using a dynamic input-output model. For the economy of Buryatia, we calculate the forecast in two versions: baseline and optimistic. Following the forecast calculation results for the dynamic in- put-output model, we outline predictive estimates of the dynamics of regional and sectoral indicators of the Republic for 2017-2019 in comparable prices. According to the baseline forecast, the Buryat GRP will retain negative dynamics in 2017-2018. A moderate economic growth will only pick up in 2019 (GRP growth rate is 101%). Fixed investment will continue to fall in 2017 (95%) and resume growing only in 2019 (102%). It is shown that under a more active economic policy by the Government of the Republic of Buryatia and favorable macroeconomic conditions, the optimistic scenario demonstrates a slight economic growth as early as 2018: GRP will increase by 1%. In 2019, according to this version, GRP will rise by more than 3%. Considering the investment lag, in order to ensure economic growth in 2018-2019 under the optimistic sce- nario, a significant increase in investment should be resumed in 2017, which will continue in 2018-2019. The optimistic forecast is a numerical estimate of those investment increment factors that are necessary to ensure the beginning of an economic recovery in the Republic of Buryatia.
|
