Project SIRENA: from Concept to Technology
S.A. SUSPITSYN
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: пространственная экономика, регион, сценарии, стратегическое планирование, моделирование, долгосрочные прогнозы, иерархическая структура, spatial economics, region, scenarios, strategic planning, modeling, long-term forecasts, hierarchical structure
Abstract
The article describes the background, current state and development prospects of the SIRENA (abbreviated from «synthesis of regional and macroeconomic solutions» in Russian) research project, which has been developed in the IEIE since the early 1980s and deals with a methodology for coordinating long-term solutions within the two-tier «national economy - regions» system was developed in the early 1980s. We present a model-methodical and software-information platform aimed at building a complex of hierarchical forecast calculations (KIPR), which is the calculation core of Project SIRENA. The article gives examples of how to make long-term regional development forecasts that implement the correct transfer of scenario macroeconomic conditions to the regions. We discuss promising trends in analyzing and forecasting the development of the Russian multiregional system with SIRENA: studying the topological properties of the space of regional indicators, measuring sustainable spatial transformations of the Russian economy, technologizing methods for developing normative scenarios of the country’s spatial development, constructing genetic development scenarios for the Russian multi- regional system based on evolutionary economics and others.
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