CYCLIC PROCESSES IN THE ACTIVITIES OF THE ORGANIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE INDICATORS OF LEVEL EFFECTS
V.G. Ionin, N.Yu. Nikolaeva
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Str. Kamenskaya, 56, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia
Keywords: экономические циклы, эффекты рычагов, гармонический анализ, прогнозирование, economic cycles, effects of leverage, harmonic analysis, forecasting
Subsection: STATISTICS AND ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Abstract
The article deals with the problem of forecasting the economic risks of the organization, measured by the corresponding indicators of the effects of leverage. The cyclic nature of these indices is considered. For the study of repeated regularities, an algorithm is proposed for describing the time sequence of the studied indicators through a system of harmonic oscillatory processes as a result of the addition of independent periodic oscillatory processes that differ in the period of the complete cycle when the amplitude and the time shift of each oscillatory process are taken into account. The method is approved at three organizations, at different time intervals.
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