Rock Failure Forecasting with 3D Modeling Using Probabilistic Cellular Automata
D. V. ALEKSEEV1, G. A. KAZUNINA2, A. V. CHEREDNICHENKO2
1Kemerovo Institute, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Kuznetskii pr. 39, Kemerovo, 650992 Russia
2Gorbachev Kuzbass State Technical University, ul. Vesennyaya 28, Kemerovo, 650000 Russia
Keywords: моделирование накопления повреждений, импульсная эмиссия, предвестники разрушений, damage accumulation modeling, emission of impulses, failure signs
Subsection: REGIONAL ISSUES OF SUBSOIL USE: KUZBASS
Abstract
The authors construct 3D probabilistic cellular automata to model accumulation of elementary damages and evolution of their cluster structure. Kinetic dependences of number of the clusters and evolution of time correlation functions are studied for the number of clusters and number of elementary damages. It is proved that intersection of the time autocorrelation function of a random process “number of impulses of emission” with the local minimum in the field of negative correlation can be interpreted as a sign of transition of a loaded material to a stage immediately preceding irreversible failure.
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