Efficiency Evaluation of Large-Scale Railway Projects Using the Model of Russian Economy
N.I. SUSLOV1, A.B. KHUTORETSKII2
1Department at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Novosibirsk State University, Pirogov str., 2, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: инвестиционный проект, железнодорожный транспорт, макроэкономическая эффективность, методика оценки, оптимизационная межотраслевая межрегиональная модель, неопределенность сценария, investment project, rail transport, macroeconomic efficiency, method of evaluation, inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model, scenario uncertainty
Abstract
In this article, we modify the well-known inter-regional inter-sectoral optimization model (ОМММ), which makes it possible to incorporate a large-scale railway investment project. If the development of the national economy is deterministic, the model estimates the possible impact of the project on households' consumptive use. This helps to evaluate the macroeconomic efficiency of the project in the given development scenario. The uncertainty of economic development can be reflected in a representative set of scenarios. We consider the comparison of competing projects under the scenario uncertainty as a game against nature. We argue that Wald's criterion is appropriate for investors, whereas managers would possibly prefer Savage's criterion. If the projects use public funds, the interests of society and the government employees selecting projects for implementation may differ significantly due to inconsistency between the criteria.
|
