Reformed science and education in Russia: specificities and application limits of foresight
V. V. Petrov1,2, E. V. Pokasova1
1Institute of Philosophy and Law of SB RAS, 8 Nikolaeva St., Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Novosibirsk State University, 2 Pirogova St., Novosibirsk, Russia, 630090
Keywords: общество знания, наука, образование, форсайт, дорожная карта, управление, принятие решений, образовательная политика, knowledge society, science, education, foresight, roadmaps, management, decision-making, educational policy
Abstract
Education is an evolving institution, which is in the process of change and reform, which directly reflects the trends of modern society in general. The strategy of education development and reform in Russia is reflected in the National Education Doctrine, which sets out the education strategic objectives in conjunction with the problems of the Russian society, but no scenario of the development of education in the XXI century is specified. For an adequate response to the challenge, the education doctrine should take into account and maintain a balance between the traditions of national education and the global trends, as well as contain forward-looking scenario of the role of education. Creation of such a scenario is possible with the help of the foresight methodology, which is already beginning to be applied in setting the research priorities, but taking into account the specificity of the interaction of the Russian science and education. In recent years, foresight is gaining popularity as a meta-technology of forecasting the future in the next 20-30 years or more. The disadvantages of existing foresight projects include the fact that the forecasts are usually formed by a narrow circle of experts, whereas foresight should involve the participation of a large number of experts from all fields of activity associated with the subject of the particular project and broad discussion of a wide range of interested parties. The main distinctive feature of foresight as compared with the traditional forecasts is a focus on the development of practical measures to accelerate reaching the chosen strategic goals as a part of the existing projects, and this is not quite obvious. Foresight does not exclude the presence of several scenarios of the future and the recognition of the possibility of realization of one of the supposed scenarios completely or partially. Which of these variants will be realized depends on the trends which are given preference at the moment and the decisions which are made today.
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