Energy Consumption under Uncertainty: Methodical Approach
Ye.V. Galperova
Keywords: energy consumption, long-term forecast, regional energy markets, demand, price, elasticity
Subsection: Regional and Interregional Aspects of Structural and Investment Policy
Abstract
The paper offers an approach to assessing a demand for fuel to make a long-term forecast of the opportunities of regional energy markets under uncertainty. A peculiarity of the approach is application of the optimization model and Monte-Carlo method. To show what would bring this approach, we present our results obtained by the application of the technique proposed to assessing the price elasticity of demand for gas observed at the new and large heating plants of several Russian regions.
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