THE MIXTURE DISTRIBUTION MODELS FOR INTEROCCURRENCE TIMES OF EARTHQUAKES
M. Erisoglua, N. Calisa, T. Servib, U. Erisoglua, and M. Topaksuc
aDepartment of Statistics, Science, and Letters Faculty, Cukurova University, Turkey
bElementary Mathematics, Education, Education Faculty, Adiyaman University, Turkey
cDepartment of Physics, Science and Literature Faculty, Adiyaman University, Turkey
Keywords: Interoccurrence time, mixture distributions, Weibull-Gamma, Exponential-Gamma, Weibull-Exponential, NAFZ
Pages: 737-744
Subsection: GEOPHYSICS
Abstract
Risk analyses made in the area of seismic activity are going to be of great importance in determining the earthquake interoccurrence times. Several statistical methods have been developed for this purpose. Recently, Exponential, Gamma and Weibull distributions are the frequently used methods in this regard. In this study, we investigate the interoccurrence time statistics of earthquakes which occurred in the area coordinated 39°-42°N and 30°-40°E in the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) between the years 1960-2008, with a mixture of two different distributions of Exponential, Gamma, and Weibull and a mixture of the same kind of distribution. We found that the mixture distributions are more suitable than the other examined distribution models for small magnitudes ( mc ≥ 3). Also, Weibull-Gamma and Weibull-Exponential distributions are agreeable for large magnitudes ( mc ≥ 5).
|
