The Cycles of the Russian History: An Analysis of the Generative Mechanism
Rozov N.S.
Keywords: cycles of Russian history, reforms and counter-reforms, nature of sociopolitical cycles, models of historical dynamics, social crises, dynamic strategies
Abstract
The paper aims at revealing the interior generative mechanism of the well known cycles in the sociopolitical history of Russia. The model of short cycles of reforms and counter-reforms (A.Yanov. V.Lapkin, and V.Pantin) and the model of long modernization cycles (R.Vishnevsky) are quite compatible and can serve as the basic for theoretical analysis. The Universal Model of Historical Dynamics (UMHD) which is used as the primary concept includes such schemes as challenge-response (A.Toynbee), crisis-decay (J.Tainter), mass mobilization (Ch.Tilly), dynamic strategies (G.Snooks) et al. The conditions and causes of non-adequate, compensatory, and prospective responses of Russian authorities to challenges are revealed. Short and long cycles, the decay of the Russian Empire and the USSR are explained within the general theoretical framework. Possible strategies breaking the cyclical mechanism are sketched.
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