Home – Home – Jornals – Russian Geology and Geophysics 2005 number 7

Recurrence time and probability for large and great earthquakes in the Baikal region and Mongolia were estimated within the limits of an inhomogeneous faulting model using the maximum entropy principle and assuming Poisson distribution of events. The predicted recurrence times of K_P = 18 earthquakes are 220 years for the Baikal region, 370, 470, and 430 years for the southwestern, central, and northeastern subregions, and 210 years for Mongolia, if the maximum energy of characteristic events is taken as K_{P max} = 19. At K_{P max} = 19, the events that may occur in the future 50 years within these territories to a 10% probability are expected to release the energies corresponding to classes 18.39, 18.15, 18.00, 18.06, and 18.42; the estimated probabilities ( P ) for K_P = 18.0 events within 50 years are 0.20, 0.13, 0.10, 0.11, and 0.21, respectively.