MAPPING AND ECOMODELING OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF RARE INSECT SPECIES IN THE SOUTH OF SIBERIA AND IN NEIGHBORING REGIONS (A CASE STUDY OF THE SUPERFAMILY ACRIDOIDEA)
M.G. Sergeev1,2, M.N. Kim-Kashmenskaya1, V.V. Molodtsov1, O.V. Yefremova1, K.V. Popova1, N.S. Sokolova1
1Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences,, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: steppes, forest-steppes, Altai-Sayan mountain system, biodiversity, Orthoptera, population
Abstract
The problems of assessing the status of rare species of Acridoidea and their populations in the south of Asian Russia and neighboring territories are discussed. Using an example of steppes and forest-steppes of the southeast of the West Siberian Plain, the possibility of a comparative analysis of maps of species locations in different periods of research to identify changes in the distribution of populations is shown. The possibilities and limitations of ecological-geographical modeling of distribution were demonstrated for two model species, namely, Aeropedellus baliolus, an inhabitant of flat steppes, and Stenobothrus newskii, an endemic of the western part of the Altai-Sayan mountain system, generally characterized by a very stable distribution. The possible results from using different sets of variables are evaluated. It is shown that the use of extended sets of variables (including data on absolute altitudes, and vegetation type) is justified for endemics of mountain systems. It is emphasized that habitat mapping, primarily in different time periods, in combination with one or more approaches to ecological-geographical modeling, makes it possible to identify areas of probable existence of populations of rare species, which is extremely important for areas with low density of collection points. The use of sets of bioclimatic variables calculated in accordance with different long-term projections of climatic transformations makes it possible to estimate, to a certain approximation, the probable trends in changes in the distribution of species.
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