Home – Home – Jornals – Geography and natural resources 2018 number 1

The inventory of implemented investment projects was used as the basis for compiling a small-scale map to display the main features of industrial and transport development of the territory of post-Soviet Russia. An exceptional territorial differentiation of industrial construction is revealed, which implies primarily its overconcentration in Moscow oblast as well as in the north-west (St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast). The northern and eastern regions of the country are characterized by focal industrial development and the dominance of mining enterprises. In Asian Russia, large-scale industrial construction is allocated to Kuzbass, and Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs, but the “density” of development is small. In many areas, new enterprises are similar in their specialization to the economic profile of a given area. Signs of territorial-production integration of enterprises in the specific conditions of the Russian market are identified. The new economic conditions saw the emergence of new sectors and production facilities: development of oil and gas resources on the shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Caspian, Baltic, Pechora and Black Seas; gas liquefaction plants, and automobile assembly enterprises. Only a quarter of the new industrial enterprises are located in regional capitals. The dispersion of industries within separate regions is determined by the high proportion of extractive enterprises, the formation of special economic zones outside the regional centers, and by the low cost of land and labor in small towns and villages. The new “village” industry has a broad spectrum of specialization and is not limited to processing agricultural raw materials. Analysis of the structure of the new industrial construction did not reveal any signs of its ecologization. Two thirds of the new facilities refer to basic, environmentally “aggressive” sectors. Most of the newly built transport infrastructure facilities are specialized in satisfying the export requirements of the country’s economy, rather than in enhancing connectivity of its territory. Intensive construction of ports and pipelines leads to the concentration of anthropogenic pressure on the water areas and the coasts, in particular the Baltic, Black and Azov Seas. The resulting map reveals new foci and areas of change in the natural environment and its large-scale transformation.

We examine the approach to studying and forecasting promising markets of rational nature management. The relationships between higher educational institutions-centers of scientific research competences with other organizations are determined. It is found that knowledge spillovers from universities must generate stable regional networks (innovation clusters) to concentrate a significant part of markets. It is established that the most advanced innovation clusters emerged in regions with centers of potential inter-regional clusters in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk and Tomsk as well as in Perm krai and Tyumen, Belgorod and Kaliningrad oblasts. Largely on the basis of data on funding of state programs, we estimated the total potential volume of the market until 2020. For estimating the proportion of the regions in it, it is assumed that it will be higher if the organizations of relevant regional cluster show a higher publication and patent activity with a large number of interactions. Moscow will concentrate more than 20 % and St. Petersburg about 10 % of the market of rational environmental management. The total volume of national products and services will make up from 0.2 to 2 % of the world market of the sphere under investigation by the year 2020; therefore, it is necessary to enhance the interactions of innovation organizations within the framework of cluster initiatives. But the main problem involves the absence of international cooperation. In fact, these efforts constitute one of the first attempts to study the sector associated with applied research of Earth sciences in Russia.

This article was prepared on the basis of on a number of Bayesian probabilistic forecasts according to the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. The aim of the research is to forecast the population dynamics in Russia, Asian countries of the CIS, now referred to Central Asia, and East Asian countries from 2015 to 2095. The main research method is multifactorial simulation modeling. Consideration is given the changes in the population size of Russia as a result of the accession of Crimea and the growth of the migration inflow from the Territory of Ukraine. The forecast relies on demographic statistics (birthrates, mortality and migration exchange) in the region’s countries from 1950 to 2015. A brief review is provided for the dynamics of the dynamics of birthrate, mortality and pure migrations for separate countries of the region from the mid-20 ^th century to 2015, and the forecast of these indicators (according to an average scenario) into 2095. Within the entire region, six forecast scenarios are considered, including the main (average) scenario. The first scenario implies the preservation (at the level of the year 2015) of the number of births in the age cohorts of females, the second scenario includes the preservation of mortality unchanged in the age cohorts of females and males, the third scenario involves a balance of migrations at the zero level, and the fourth and fifth scenarios provide a change in the number of pure migrations, with the birthrates and mortality remaining unchanged. The sixth scenario is treated as an average scenario. The population size by the end of the forecast period varies considerably with a particular scenario, but irrespective of the forecast scenario, a significant decrease in the population size is expected in Japan, China, South Korea and Russia. The largest increase in population by 2095 is forecasted for Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

The landscape-basin approach based on the sequential operation algorithm developed for determining potential and actual water supply of Western Siberia territories is proposed to adjust the existing assessments of water availability. The technique for estimating the water availability at the regional and sub-regional level is presented. The assessment of potential water avail ability is carried out within the boundaries of landscape provinces, whereas actual water availability is assessed for separate river basins and water management sites. Future water consumption is estimated with due regard for the current peculiarities of water use in Western Siberia regions and trends in water use efficiency, including water capacity of industrial and agricultural production as well as strategic plans for territorial development. Superposition of natural and administrative-territorial boundar ies has been achieved through the use of GIS technologies. Assessment results on the potential water availability in 83 landscape provinces of Western Siberia from 12 federal subjects of Russia are presented. Future water consumption has been assessed for the Western Barabinsk landscape province of Omsk oblast where the city of Omsk and the Omskii municipal district are lo cated. The actual water availability has been estimated for a water management site in the Tom river basin, Kemerovo oblast. The size of the Western Siberia population living in conditions of extremely low, very low and low potential water availability has been calculated. The assessment results are given in tabular form and as geoinformation-cartographic models.

The method of identifying potential areas of protected plant species with the use of geoinformation analyses is discussed in the example of one mountain territory (Tanzybei management polygon, 168 000 ha) within the Altai-Sayan ecoregion. Four altitudinal belt complexes (ABC) form the spectrum of barrier-rain mountain landscapes on the windward macroslope of Western Sayan - from mixed pine-birch forest with Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula (light-coniferous subtaiga, 300-500 m) and chern mixed forest with Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Populus tremula (350-900 m) to middle-mountain perhumid taiga with Abies sibirica (900-1350 m) and subalpine sparse woodlands with Pinus sibirica and Abies sibirica (1350-1600 m). The current importance of this research is dictated by a particular significance of a specific class of barrier-rain specific ecosystems for a classification of mountain landscapes of Siberia. Field route and station-based investigations made during 1960-2015, and also materials on forest inventory were systematized in the form of regional databases on the typological composition of forests, vegetation and flora and combined with the regional geoinformation system of the Tanzybei district forestry. This provided the initial ecological-geographical basis for subsequent efforts on the compilation of analytic maps. Results were tested and verified during subsequent field route investigations. Examples of analytic maps are given. The method developed for identifying potential areas of species by using the authors’ databases on flora and vegetation, ecological-geographical approach and geoinformation analyses serves to obtain new knowledge of geographical content.

Presented are the results of hydrochemical work on the Amur river done during the freeze-up period in 2006, 2008 and 2011-2015 at the city of Khabarovsk and the villages of Leninskoe and Amurzet. The source of information used was represented by data of a joint Russian-Chinese monitoring of the water quality of the transboundary water bodies. We examine changes in the chemical composition of the Middle Amur water after transboundary pollution in November 2005 caused by the incident in the Jilin chemical plant (Songhua river basin). Emphasis is placed on the large role played by environmental measures in China (construction of pollution control facilities and hydraulic structures, shutdown of separate enterprises, etc.) in an improvement of the Songhua water quality. The influence of the regulation of the Zeya and Bureya rivers on the hydrochemical regime of the Middle Amur is shown. A characteristic is provided for the concentration distribution of dissolved matter along the length and width of the Amur in the section from Amurzet and Khabarovsk (400 km). The study revealed a smoothing of the differences in contents of the chemical composition components in the Amur waters along the width downstream of the inflow of Songhua. It is established that the Middle Amur water quality has improved in recent years: an increase in content of dissolved oxygen in the water, no pollution by nitrite nitrogen, and an abrupt decrease in ammonium nitrogen concentration. A predominance of the oxygenated form over the reduced form in the discharge was observed in the Middle Amur waters after 2012. A characteristic is given to the chemical composition of the Middle Amur waters during the freeze-up period after the historical flood of 2013.

A high-resolution bathymetric survey of the entire underwater slope in South Baikal was carried out for the first time by means of the multibeam echosounder. New elements were revealed in the underwater relief of the southern slope of the basin from the Kultuchnaya river to the Mysovka river, and a relevant regionalization was carried out into three areas according to the presence of ancient landforms and the intensity of the processes of their reworking, with the boundaries along the delta-front and the river fan of the Utulik and Pereemnaya. We reconstructed the formation process of the modern relief of this area of the underwater slope and determined a dominant role of the underwater-erosion processes in the formation of the modern relief, with the tectonic movements served as the “trigger” for them. The study revealed a direct correlation between the reworking of the ancient geomorphological surfaces and the occurrence of separate large underwater elevations or group ridges (remnants), canyons and linear depressions. It is determined that the pivotal role in the appearance of the modern relief of the underwater slope in the second area of extensive plano-convex (in section) and fan-shaped (in plan) delta-fronts of large rivers and debris fans enveloping the remnants. The existence of a steep underwater slope from the mouth of the Pereemnaya to the mouth of the Bol’shaya Tel’naya and of two large benches, and also the proximity of the maximum depths of the southern basin at the foot of this slope are explained by a more intense step-like lowering of this part of the lake when compared with the western part of the basin. This also accounts for the absence of large remnants in this part of the slope. The area of occurrence of lacustrine-fluvial and lacustrine-delta deposits of the Tankhoi paleobasin within the southern basin of Baikal is reconstructed. Four new hydrate-bearing structures associated with these deposits and morphologically pronounced in the vertex parts of the remnants were discovered. The morphological exploration indicators of the presence of new accumulations of gas hydrates on the under water slopes of Baikal have been expanded.

We explore the possibility of using space images in the study of the distribution of suspended sediments transported by the sediment runoff of the Selenga river, in the southern part of Lake Baikal. The relative concentration of suspended particles was identified on Landsat images without using ground-based turbidity measurements. The effect of different depths of solar radiation penetration was used to separate suspended matter in the surface layer and in deeper layers. On the basis of satellite image interpretation and using data on the constant currents in the lake, the bottom topography, runoff and prevailing winds for the day before the images were taken, we constructed the maps of suspended sediment distribution in the lake. The maps were used to indirectly estimate the sediment runoff distribution in the by-channels of the Selenga river delta depending on the time and phase of the water regime. A number of factors influencing the sediment runoff distribution were identified: the volume of transported material, longshore and deep-water currents, surface currents caused by short-lasting wind effects, and bottom topography. The effect of each factor on the sediment runoff distribution was analyzed. Analysis of the maps confirmed that the main factor in calm weather conditions is represented by constant currents in the lake. However, in the case of significant unidirectional wind effects, the sediment runoff distribution changes drastically. It is established that the pattern of sediment runoff distribution has remained unchanged for at least the last forty years.

Presented are the results of the winter 2014 radiophysical expedition, within the framework of which the Baikal ice cover was investigated by electromagnetic methods. The primary objectives the expedition were to detect irregularities in the ice cover, such as cracks and thawing steamed holes in the ice, and to determine the ice thickness and structure in the area of the thawing holes by the GPR sounding method. We used in the experiments the “OKO-2” GPR of the decimeter band and the nanosecond radar with the wavelength of 3 cm. The measurements were made carried out from the Khivus hovercraft and from the UAZ automobile. The ice thickness of Lake Baikal was determined by non-contact electromagnetic measurement methods. Radargrams of reflected signals from the ice cover are presented. Radar patterns of reflected signals from artificial irregularities of the ice cover were obtained by the short-pulse radar method. The concept of radiophysical monitoring is suggested, which provides a means of determining the ice cover parameters of a water body with high spatial resolution. We present an integral approach to investigating the state of ice cover in order to integrate different physicochemical methods for diagnosing the objects studied. A further development of the concept of integrated ice cover research, and the creation of the monitoring network involves solving a number of scientific and engineering tasks that include developing physical models and information and measurement systems as well as the rationale for an integrated monitoring network.

For the first time, a detailed analysis is made of the occurrence and different morphodynamical type-channel formation conditions on the Middle Ob within Tomsk oblast, from the mouth of the Tom river to the boundary with Khanty-Mansi Au tonomous Okrug-Yugra. We emphasize the role of a broad floodplain and of its inundation conditions during snowmelt floods, the occurrence conditions for channel-forming water discharges and channel stability in the predominant development of river meandering, including of the branches of floodplain-channel forks. Braided and straight unbraided channels occupy a subordi nate position separating sinuous reaches. It is shown that floodplain-channel forks with meandering branches occur largely at long transitions of the river from one valley side to the other, diagonally across the floodplain flow direction. The parameters of the bends in the forks of this type correspond to their hydraulicity, but no clear-cut hydrological-morphological relationships are determined because of intermittent runoff redistributions between branches. Modal (for the sections of the river between the main tributaries) values of the parameters of the bends depend inversely on the river hydraulicity (order). By introducing a correction coefficient for floodplain dissection by a floodplain fork as the indicator of the degree of diversion of water flow from the channel to the floodplain, it was possible to determine a “normal” relationship between parameters of the bends and hydraulicity of the channel flow during floods. Furthermore, we ascertained the relationships between the degree of development and the coefficient of the form of bends and determined their manifestations. For all the bends, we determined changes in parameters for the time interval 1986-2011 and the transition of some of them from one category to another, and ascertained the causes for runoff re distribution and the development of branches of the floodplain-channel forks.

An assessment is made of the uniqueness of modern vegetation in Prebaikalia as a biogeographical entity. It is shown that its complex structural-cenotic diversity is represented on the new universal geobotanical map of vegetation at a scale of 1:500 000. The map legend, constructed on the principles of V. B. Sochava’s multidimensional and multistage structural-dynamical clas sification of plant communities, displayed more than 160 cenotic subdivisions of vegetation of Prebaikalia representing its differ ent types. An analysis is made of the development paths of vegetation for assessing its evolutionary potential. The study revealed the main stages of philocenogenesis in the Late Cenozoic. Its main directions have been revealed, which are important for un derstanding the characteristics of the region’s modern vegetation cover. The heterogeneity and heterochronicity of modern ceno tic diversity of vegetation is shown. Emphasis is placed on the evolutionary processes of vegetation of Prebaikalia in the Holocene which can last for at least 40 thousand years. In this connection, it is proposed to change interpretation of the Holocene Optimum as an optimum for the evolution of the dark-coniferous taiga of Siberia. It is shown that the genetic linkages of the cenotic struc ture of modern vegetation cover in Prebaikalia are clearly pronounced via regional-typological categories of vegetation reflecting profound links of modern vegetation with natural-geographical regions where its philogenetic processes were taking place in in teraction with the general evolution of the natural environment. An analysis is made of the significance of the floristic and cenotic boundaries having an important biogeographical significance. Such boundaries, on the one hand, are the footprint of the past evolutionary processes in vegetation, and in the natural environment as a whole, and, on the other, indicate the dynamical potential of possible changes in vegetation under global climate change.

To identify current trends in the functioning of the geosystems of the Tunkinskaya depression and the mountains surrounding it, this paper considers the natural course of their development and anthropogenic transformation. The main landscape-forming factor is represented by the characteristics of the morphological structure of the surface of the mountain-basin territories experienc ing the effects of intense current dynamical trends: aeolian processes, debris flow activity and eutrophication which enhance the polychronicity of the landscape structure. Landscape discontinuity is complicated by the ongoing economic activities. Significant areas of the gentle slopes of the depression are occupied by agricultural lands; periodically recurring human-caused fires that are responsible for a widespread occurrence of secondary small-leaved forests. For forecasting the trends in the natural-economic situation, an assessment is made of the rehabilitation dynamics of the biotic component of geosystems. In the absence of the an thropogenic factor, the rehabilitation of natural piedmont pine (Pínus sylvestris) forests will require about 40-50 years, and several centuries in the case of natural mountain taiga larch (Larix sibirica) forests. The characteristics thus identified were used in compiling the landscape map for the Tunkinskaya depression and the mountains surrounding it which gives a complete picture of the current state of the geosystems. Evidence obtained in this study can provide a scientific basis for forecasting the evolution of geosystems, carrying out measures for nature management optimization and in dealing with nature conservation issues.

Presented are the results from investigating glacial terminal basins of Eastern Transbaikalia. The formation conditions are examined for lake basins. This paper provides examples of the parameters of the glacier snout-caused overdeepening crystalline rocks and unconsolidated deposits of intermontane basins. The Late Pleistocene age of the lake basins is determined by the paleogeographical restoration of the ancient glaciations of Transbaikalia. The terminal lakes are direct indicators of the maximum distance of mountain-valley glaciers from the centers of the last glaciation. They Bol’shoe and Maloe Leprindo, Zarod, Nichat ka, Oron, Chitkanda and other lakes. Paleoglaciological restoration of glaciation, and analysis of the neotectonic block structure of the relief determine the genesis of lake depressions occurring in glacial areas. Morphogenetic analysis of terminal formations substantiates the priority of exogenous processes over endogenous processes in the formation of lake basins. The influence of endogenous forces is limited by selective exaration of rocks that are weakened by intense tectonic fissuring. The lake preservation conditions and the dynamics of the filling of glacial lakes with terrigenous material in the Late Pleistocene-Holocene are assessed.

A city is considered as a complex object for study that combines the natural basis and the man-made environment. The landscape-functional differentiation became a fundamental stage of relevant investigations. The modern landscape and functional structures of the territory of Birobidzhan have been studied on the basis of research results and material of previous work. The basic characteristics of the natural and anthropogenic components of Birobidzhan are provided for the period starting from its foundation. Extensive areas of natural landscapes areas little affected by anthropogenic activities have been identified as well as a relatively large number of open spaces and green spaces which refer to potential reserve areas in ecological planning, are identified in the city limits. Furthermore, it was found that the planning structure of Birobidzhan has been an environmentally unreasonable project, which is evidenced by the chaotic location of industrial, residential and recreational areas, and the absence of sanitary protection zones within the urban development. The soil-vegetable cover and planning structure has been used as the main criteria for the selection of landscape-functional complexes. As a result, four landscape-functional complexes were identified in the city: man-made, anthropogenic-man-made, anthropogenic-natural, natural and anthropogenic, with different proportions in the urban system of Birobidzhan. Systematization within these complexes is used as a basis for the legend to the 1:25 000 map “Landscape functional complexes in Birobidzhan”, scale 1:25 000. The results obtained can serve as a basis for a preliminary assessment of the ecological situation and for the development of recommendations for the optimization of the quality of the urban environment. In the structure of the landscape-functional complexes, 35.5 % correspond to the heavily modified technogenic and anthropogenic technogenic landscapes. Some improvements can be achieved by increasing the proportion of anthropogenic-natural complexes and through conservation of those natural and man-made landscape-functional complexes with different levels of disturbance.

We examine the current state of the geosystems on Popov Island. It is found that as a result of the anthropogenic influence there are taking place the transformation of primary forests and an increase in the proportion of adventives vegetation near settlements; depletion of the species composition of lichen cover has been recorded. The soils of the islands are characterized by a small thickness and are highly skeletal of the stony-rubble composition; therefore, most of the island’s territory refers to the erosion-hazardous group of lands. Active sheet erosion is observed on roads and roadsides composed of granites and granitoids, occasional basalts and diorite-basalts dominated by polydominant broad-leaved forests on dark burozems. The anthropogeni cally transformed territories count for 12.57 % of the area. In spite of a relatively strong anthropogenic impact, the geosystems have retained their natural state. The indicator of landscape diversity, and also species diversity of vascular plants and lichens, and the coefficient of natural protection of the territory reflect the persistence of the functioning mechanisms of the system within the island, and ensure its geosystem integrity and the presence of stable internal linkages between natural-territorial com plexes. A reconstruction of the natural environment from data of pollen and radiocarbon analysis revealed natural spatiotempo ral changes of landscapes for the last six thousand years. The structural transformations of geosystems were caused by changes in the climatic regime and occurred in several stages. The latter half of the Atlantic period was characterized by a prevalence of polydominant broad-leaved forests; small-leaved forests dominated during the warming period of the Little Ice Age; the propor tion of broad-leaved species increased during the Little Holocene Optimum and under current global warming.

Pskov oblast and Jewish Autonomous Oblast are used as an example to demonstrate changes in agriculture of the border areas of the Russian Federation. It is shown that between western and eastern regions there are differences in the development of agriculture that are caused not only by agro-climatic conditions but also by the socioeconomic situation. In Pskov oblast, considerable regional funds are invested in the development of large agricultural production, whereas less attention is given to farming than in Jewish Autonomous Oblast with a high proportion of farms that emerged in connection with disintegration of large agricultural enterprises. In Pskov oblast, agricultural enterprises were closed or joined agricultural holdings that work for Moscow or St. Petersburg. A decline in plant-growing implies a reduction in traditional crops (flax and grains). In Jewish Auto nomous Oblast, agricultural organizations dispersed among private enterprises (farms and households), which is explained by the development of small-scale trade. An increase in soybean cultivation is due to its demand in the Russian and international sales markets. The two oblasts show a decrease in livestock population (especially horned cattle) as the cost of keeping is high. In Pskov oblast, most of the livestock are kept in agricultural organizations, whereas in Jewish Autonomous Oblast in private house holds. Cross-border cooperation of Pskov oblast and Jewish Autonomous Oblast also has some features in common. In the two oblasts, foreign investors invest in agriculture. In the former oblast, however, the projects envisage long-term cooperation that includes the development of rural areas located in the zone of influence of the programs; in the latter oblast, investments are for short-term periods with the purpose of obtaining profits from the territory, without any interest shown in its development.

Some issues related to the development of the municipal formations of Irkutsk oblast are considered. It is found that the human population is characterized by the highest sensitivity to impacts of different types, and this factor was used to develop methods of situation analysis of the population response to changes in the socioeconomic environment. The models and methods used are based on notions and equations of reliability theory. The resulting integrated indicator makes it possible to estimate the degree of use of the demographic potential. For the municipal formations of Irkutsk oblast the indicators of integrated life hazard under the existing conditions were calculated on the basis of series of data on the population size for a long period of time. Calculations involve determining the degree of life hazard from the value of demographic response to the impact of multi-level factors of the natural and socioeconomic environment. Results of the calculations identify different trends in the demographic development of cities and districts of Irkutsk oblast discriminating between normal and critical states. A comparative analysis is made of the findings in order to ascertain the characteristics of the transformation of the spatial organization of the territory for the last several decades. General trends for groups of districts and cities, and also some features of differences are revealed. The causes thereof are linked to the inhomogeneity of the region’s socioeconomic conditions. The method of situation analysis presented in this study provides a means of assessing the trends of further development or degradation of settlements. The value of an integrated hazard serves as the indicator of changes in the socioeconomic situation. The suggested technique can be used for historical-demographic comparative analysis and mapping of different regions and stages of their development.

Presented are the results obtained from the radar profiling of the Peretolchin glacier in the Munku-Sardyk mountain range in the south of Siberia (June 2014 and May 2016) using georadar “Oko-2” with the ABDL “Triton” antenna unit operating at the radiation frequency of 50 and 100 MHz. The ice thickness was determined from the profiles and the ice volumes from the cross-sectional areas and distances between profiles. The ice volume was calculated for the body of the Peretolchin glacier to be 0.007 ± 0.0019 km ³ . An analytical method was also used to determine the ice volume according to the type and area of glacier. It is established that the correlation between the volume and the area of the glaciers is expressed by a power function V = kS ^p . The mean ice volume, calculated with due regard for different coefficients, was 0.0061 km ³ . The GlabTop model that takes into account the cross-sectional form of the glacier was used to infer the ice volume: the mean volume for two cross-sections (para bolic and ellipses) was 0.0073 km ³ . It is established that for 110 years since the start of the investigation into the morphology of the Peretolchin glacier, it has increased twice in its length and in area, its volume has decreased by a factor of 3.7, and the lower boundary of the open part of the glacier has risen 184 meters for that time.

This investigation is concerned with the problem of recognition of glacial landforms in arid mountainous areas of Asia us ing satellite imagery. We examine the territory of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range located at the interface of the Russian Altai, Sayan and Mongolian Altai mountains which has been studied for many years by geographers of St. Petersburg State University. The mountain range is home to modern glaciers totaling about 20 km in area, and its climate aridity is favorable for the preservation of a large body of evidence of ancient glaciation. The theoretical basis for this effort was provided by the idea of glaciogenic complexes, i. e. natural complexes, the morphology and structure of which is formed by modern and ancient gla ciations. Using the morphological differences we identified three groups of glaciogenic complexes and assigned their formation time to MIS 4, MIS 2, and to the Late Holocene. Results from comparing data of glacio-geomorphological and paleogeographi cal studies on the territory of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range with corresponding satellite images were used to develop inter pretation standards for different groups of glaciogenic complexes, forming the basis for compiling the map of glaciogenic com plexes of th second and third order for the entire mountain range. Cartometric measurements were used in obtaining the main characteristics of the glaciers of the Mongun-Taiga for ten different time spans. It is found that during the MIS 4 maximum the glaciers advanced to the piedmonts, and their area exceeded the present-day area by more than a factor of 25, with the firn line depression of about 800 m. The largest areas were occupied by glaciers of southward aspects, which is accounted for by a pre dominance of north-westward moisture-carrying glacial streams at that time. The aspect asymmetry of glaciation persisted during the MIS 2 maximum but it had a valley character. It is established that in the Little Ice Age the area of the glaciers exceeded the present-day area by a factor of 2.4, with the firn line depression of 20 m.

This paper discusses the main properties of models and model assessments forming the notion of their quality, which include the accuracy, reliability and details of the description of approximate model assessments. On the basis of taking into account the entire set of quantitative parameters of these characteristics, the notion of the measure of model quality is introduced. The main property determining the model quality is highlighted, namely the accuracy of model calculation using independent data. Ap proximate estimations of the values of a variable in the interval and probabilistic form are considered, which can be constructed on the basis of data on its values in the past. For probabilistic assessments of the values of the variables, it is suggested that, in addition to the measure of accuracy, the measure of informativity should be used, which is determined in terms of entropies of the corresponding probability distribution functions. In developing the algorithms for assessing the measure of quality, special attention is paid to calculating the parameters characterizing the reliability of approximate model assessments and the models themselves. The reliability is assessed in terms of the probabilities of the events occurring when the model is constructed or used. The measure of probability of the model of dependence determined at the stage of constructing it by using the learning sample is calculated as the product of two probabilities: the measure of confidence to the predictors of a dependent variable, and the mea sure of confidence to the operator describing a dependence of this variable on them. Recommendations are made for assessing these probabilities. N view of the stricter requirements for the reliability of predictive assessments, the algorithm is suggested for increasing it by combining into an ensemble the conditional model and unconditional probability assessments.

The article presents the results from studying and analyzing subrecent spectra of the Transbaikalian region. A palynological analysis is made of pollen spectra of the mountain-taiga and steppe-taiga and steppe zones as well as studying the spectra from different-facies deposits of four key areas. The scheme of vegetation is compiled for each key area, and a detailed analysis is made of the palynospectra. The study revealed special features in the composition of spectra of different vegetation associations and their correspondence to the composition of modern vegetation. It is shown that the spectra faithfully reflect its integral zonal, regional and local peculiarities. A comparative analysis is made of the spectra from deposits of different genetic types. The com positions of the spectra from soil, alluvial and lacustrine deposits are compared. The relationship of pollen from light- and dark-coniferous species is analyzed. Methods of multidimensional statistics are used, including Principal Component Analysis. A fun damental difference is revealed in the composition of spectra for mountain-taiga and steppe landscapes. It is established that the main background in the subrecent spectra for mountain-taiga and steppe areas, respectively, is composed of pollen from woody plants and grasses. An analysis is made of current climatic parameters as well as determining the character of correlation between the composition of the spectra and the main parameters of climate determining the evolution of modern vegetation producing pollen spectra. Important parameters are determined; the mean annual precipitation amount, and the index of continentality which are reliable indicators of change in climatic conditions when carrying out paleoclimatic reconstructions in Transbaikalia. It is established that spectra with maximum content of pollen from dark- and light-coniferous woody plants tend to occur in areas with different mean annual precipitation amounts and with different values of the index of continentality.

Data on rock falls and landslides caused by strong earthquakes in the Zhetysu Alatau, Ile Alatau, Kungei Alatau and Teriskei Alatau mountain ranges on the territory of Southeastern Kazakhstan are presented. The study revealed more than 60 large seismogenic rock falls and landslides, the volume of 25 of them varies from 10 to 100 mil. m ³ , and the volume of the four largest exceeds 100 mil. m ³ . The volume of the largest rock fall in the valley of the Ulken Almaty river in the Ile Alatau moun tain range is estimated at 380 mil. m ³ . The highest density of seismogenic landslides was recorded in the low-mountain zone of the northern slope of the Ile Alatau range where the magnitude 9 earthquake of 1887 caused a massive formation of landslides with the volume totaling more than 400 mil. m ³ and a density of 1/5 km ² . The proportion of landslide-affected areas is esti mated at 5 % of the area of their occurrence. In the mid- and high-mountain zones of Zhetysu, Ile and Kungei Alatau, the density of seismogenic rock falls varies from 1/100 to 1/50 km ² , and the proportion of rock fall-affected areas varies from 1 to 1,5 %. It is found that seismogenic rock falls have dammed 26 lakes, and the volume of nine such lakes exceeds 10 mil. m ³ . The largest rock fall-affected lakes is Upper Zhasylkol in the valley of the Aganakty river in Zhetysu Alatau with the volume of 44 mil. m ³ . Data from earthquake catalog were used to compile the map for the recurrence frequency of earthquakes of magni tude higher than 6, capable of causing seismogenic rock falls and landslides. It is found that during the last 130 years, in Ile and Kungei Alatau such earthquakes recurred four times. It is established that earthquakes with maximum magnitude 9 are possible in the mountainous regions of Southeastern Kazakhstan.

The characteristic features of the transformation of the territorial geospace structure in the African Christianity religious geospace during 1910-2010 have been revealed. African countries within the boundaries of 2010 are used as territorial cells that have been fixed retrospectively over the course of the period analyzed. We used indicators, such as Ryabtsev’s index of relative structural shifts and the trajectory of the demographic center of the Christianity to assess changes in the inertia level of the ter ritorial structure for the entire time interval as a whole and for each of the components of its 20-year long periods. It is found that to date the adherents of Christianity are extremely unevenly distributed in the countries of Africa; however, over the course of the period under consideration there was taking place a homogenization of their settlement. In accordance with changes of the values of the indicators used, we identified two development stages of geospace of African Christianity: colonial and post-colonial. It is determined that the colonial stage (1910-1970) is characterized by a “compression” of territorial structure from east and north, and by a predominance of the south-westward direction of movement of the demographic center because of a decrease in the proportion in the Christian population of East Africa first on account of Ethiopia and Madagascar (1910-1930) and then North Africa on account of Egypt and Algeria (1930-1950). The territorial structure of Christianity’s geospace during the post colonial stage is characterized by a higher degree of inertia at the background of the westward ”expansion” and the “compression” from the south as well as by a change of the vector of movement of the demographic center for north-westward.