Home – Home – Jornals – Geography and Natural Resources 2020 number 1

A general analysis is made of the system of subject headings and the authors of the journal «Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy» which has published about 4.5 thousand of articles and communications over the past 40 years. The thematic diversity of the journal is represented by publications in nine leading and five additional subject headings. Each issue begins with papers dealing with new theoretical ideas or having broad spatial coverage: Siberia, Russia, and the planet. The heading «Regional problems of environmental studies and natural resources utilization» has the largest contents. The composition of authors in the journal (including more than 500 authors) is considered. The publications are most frequently authored by researchers of V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS as well as of Lomonosov Moscow State University and Limnological Institute SB RAS. The journal publishes contributions of all leading geographers of Russia and many foreign scientists.

An analysis is made of the topics of physical-geographical contributions published in the journal «Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy» over the last 40 years. They were devoted to the theoretical and methodological questions of physical geography, a further development of V.B. Sochava’s theory of geosystems, regional characteristics of the landscape geosphere, the structure, dynamics, evolution and anthropogenic transformation of geosystems, agrolandscapes, urban landscapes and recreation, assess ments of geosystems and their natural-resource potential, landscape regionalization and forecasting, the issues concerning the securing and optimization nature management, and territorial and landscape planning.

We examine the main development paths of academic landscape-geochemical and soil-geographical research reflected in contributions published in the journal «Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy». Emphasis is placed on the areas of landscape-geochem ical and soil-geographical research on a comprehensive study into the structure of geosystems of the main types of geographical environment and their natural regimes in expedition-based and station-based investigations. An attempt is made to generalize the areas of research and determine the vector of its changes. The development prospects of the landscape-geochemical direction of modern geography imply a better understanding of the patterns of an integral physical-geographical process and the solution of practical problems having largely an ecological-assessment and forecasting character.

This paper provides a brief overview of the contributions published in the journal during the past forty years, dealing with hydrological and climatological investigations. The publications have presented results from assessing the water-resource potential and hydroclimatic characteristics; the issues related to water use and conform of the climate were considered; results from study ing regional and global climatic changes were provided; attention was given to the specific character of channel processes, and the research on Lake Baikal was presented in a multifaceted manner. Pivotal among them are the theoretical and method ological issues in hydroclimatology, approaches in forecasting and modeling hydroclimatic characteristics, and the problems of air and water pollution and avoiding and preventing adverse hydroclimatic phenomena.

Results of the activity of the journal “Geografiya i Prirodnye Resursy” are considered for the past 40 years, with emphasis on the solution of currently relevant geomorphological problems. The main directions and characteristics of geomorphological publications on the pages of the journal are analyzed. The long-term dynamics of the publishing activity of geomorphologists is revealed as well as determining their leaders and the spheres of the greatest interest in the development of geomorphology in different regions of Russia and the world. The chief causes of changes in the temporal structure of publications and the reasons behind their decline at present are identified.

An analysis is made of the development of nival-glacial subjects continually present in publications of the journal «Geo grafiya i Prirodnye Resursy» from 1980 to 2019, i. e. from its very first issue. Short periods of decline in the activity of authors were most commonly due to objective factors of a scientific-organizational nature. This growing body of publications can therefore be regarded as a full-fledged nival-glacial research database.

Presented are the main themes of publications in social geography reflecting changes in research priorities during the past forty years. In different periods of the life of the society, emphasis was placed on problems concerning development of taiga ter ritories and later on the interaction of production with the environment and with public demands. An important milestone in publications on economic and social geography was associated with the transition of the country’s economy to market relations, which involved an increase of the number of contributions on ecological and social subjects.

This paper considers the subject-matter of publications reflecting the various aspects of basic and applied research done in the traditional and new areas of modern cartographic science. The largest number of publications corresponds to the general section and to the heading entitled «Research techniques» accounting for more than 60 % of contributions on this subject-matter. The journal publishes the most fundamental theoretical-methodological papers as well as contributions actualized from the metho dological and practical perspective, authored by Russian and foreign researchers which are concerned with issues related to the development of physical-geographical, socio-economic and ecological mapping and the formation of a fundamental academic direction of atlas mapping and cartographic-statistical and mathematical-cartographic methods of modeling in developing the contents of a broad spectrum of thematic maps.

It is shown that since the beginning of field development, a single natural and historical process of oil and gas generation and accumulation has been accompanied by the transformation of the entire complex of geological, biochemical, geochemical, thermobaric and hydrogeological environmental conditions and modern landscape genesis. Studying this process within the ter ritory of leading oil and gas production regions delivers interesting results in the three aspects of anthropogenic transformation of oil and gas geosystems: geotechnics (infrastructure), geotechnologies (extraction) and geotechnical metabolism (man-made me tabolism and matter cycles). The research done on regional geoecology dictates a need to study all stages of oil production. We determined the parameters of regional geoecology and oil and gas ecology for dealing with the currently important problems of assessing the operation of enterprises of the oil and gas sector in the context of the ecological policy of the Russian Federation. The integrated geographical approach implemented as part of mega-ecology is suggested for forecasting the results of the global process of technogenesis in the landscape sphere and for determining the most crucial parameters of sustainable development of Russia’s oil and gas regions. Ugra, the leader of Russia’s oil production (235,3 million tons, 43,3 %), faces issues with its resource base. Since 2009, there has been a production decline by 43 million tons in the region, with the watercut level in the main de posits reaching 90-95 %. The hydrocarbon indicator was developed and used in ranking 30 oil and gas regions. The most im portant indicators of oil and gas ecology are given to illustrate the situation with the oil and gas sector of the economy: from prospecting, exploration and well stimulation to declining production and closing businesses down. It is established that produc tion and processing of hydrocarbons are responsible for 55 % of atmospheric emissions of pollutants, 33 % of polluted effluents, 35 % of solid waste and 80 % of the total volume of greenhouse gases.

Maximum permissible concentrations for chemical elements in soils (MPCs) of Russia, Germany, Canada, the Netherlands and the USA are compared. In Russia, general sanitary, water-transferred and translocation MPCs are created; in Germany, general sanitary and translocation, and in the Netherlands, the USA and Canada, general sanitary. It is found that Russian MPCs for total contents of chemical elements are adequate for Mn and V, American, for Co, Cu, and Pb; Netherlands, for Pb and Zn; Canadian, for Ba, Co, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn, and German, for Cr, Ni, and Pb by taking into account the typical levels of elements in the background soils across the world. The methodologically closest Russian and Netherlands standard rates of total contents of chemical elements are compared in this paper with the typical levels for background Retisols gleic, Phaeozems, and Chernozems in the center of Western Siberia. It is established that use of the Netherlnds MPCs for the soils under study gives fewer cases of false Pb pollution, but in all the soils under consideration the Netherlands MPCs for Ba is exceeded. False pollution by total Zn is observed in the top-soil; by Cr, Cu and V, in subsoil horizons of Retisols gleic as well as by Cr, Ni and V, in most samples of Phaeozems and Chernozems. It is concluded that for the soils under consideration the utilization of Rus sian MPCs gives fewer cases of false pollution by V. But in the background Retisols gleic, Russian MPCs for Mn and Pb ac cumulated in the biogeochemical barrier in the top-soil horizons are exceeded. Russian MPCs for metal mobile fraction are the most correct for Co, Cr, Cu, Ni and Pb. The MPCs for mobile fraction of biogenic Mn and Zn are underestimated. Background levels (mg/kg in subindex) of total concentration (mobile fraction extracted by acetate-ammonium buffer) are proposed for Ba404-515, Co12-19(0.001-0.23), Cr143-188(0.001-0.72), Cu32-41(0.01-0.72), Mn423-874(0.09-64), Ni30-62(0.003-1.3), Pb18-27(0.003-0.87), V112-170 и Zn55-104(0.004-0.42) in Retisols gleic on Tobol Upland, Phaeozems on Ishym Upland, and Chernozems in the Trans-Ural region.

A study is made of the characteristic features in the soil chemical composition for the main landscape complexes on Belyi Island (Kara Sea): flat watersheds, slopes of the marine terraces, river and lake valleys, and sea coast layda. Soil samples were examined on content of main trace elements (Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Cd, Cr, Hg, and Pb), total organic carbon and nitrogen, par ticle size distribution and ion-salt composition. It was shown that the landscapes refer to three classes of water migration: acids, acid gleyic and salt sulfidic. Soils of the island are characterized mainly by sand texture and low content of trace elements. The mean values of concentration Clarkes (CC) were 0,2, 0,3, 0,4, 0,4, 0,7 and 0,9 for Cr, Cu, Mn, Fe, Zn and Hg, respectively. The lowest content of trace elements was recorded for arenosols of watersheds and the marine terrace slopes, where CC = 0,1-0,4. Content of trace elements is related by a positive correlation with the quantity of clay and silt fractions. The study revealed an increase in the concentration of alphitite, water-soluble salts and trace elements in soils of accumulative landscapes. The Zn content in soils of accumulative landscapes is 12,9-28,9 mg/kg, whereas this value increases to 70 mg/kg in accumulative landscapes of laydas and to 92 mg/kg in superaquatic landscapes. The Cu content in accumulative landscapes, in comparison with autonomous landscapes, increases by a factor of 1,4-8,1, and by a factor of 15 in lake sediments. In the vertical soil profile, the distribution of the trace elements is recognized to be dependent from biogenic accumulation and that on the permafrost geochemical barrier. The radial (lateral) distribution of Mn, Fe, Zn and Pb in the gleysols is characterized by the eluvial-illu vial type: the maximum values were recorded in the superficial biogenic and suprapermafrost layers.

We have examined the geographical features in the distribution and the radiation parameters of radioactive dumps of rocks in the Elkon uranium ore area on the territory of South Yakutia. It is pointed out that the dumps under study are geomorpho logically located on the Elkon horst which is a protrusion of crystalline basement rocks, towering over the territory of the Aldan highlands. It is found that most of these dumps lie within streambeds and in the bottoms of mountain rivers of the zone of hy pergenesis and, geochemically, they are influenced by steep-slope topography, a cold humid climate and mountain-taiga vegeta tion dominating land cover. It is shown that these rock dumps were formed in the last third of the 20 ^th century, during a large-scale and intense geological exploration for radioactive raw materials in this area. Radiation parameters of the dumps under study, such as the gamma radiation exposure dose, the content of ²³⁸ U, ²³² Th and ⁴⁰ K, as well as the effective specific activity of these radionuclides were determined. It is found that the most active rock dumps, in their radiation parameters, approach radioactive ores. The dumps under study were ranked according to the degree of radiation danger to the population on the basis of the particular values of the gamma radiation exposure dose and effective specific activity of these radionuclides. It is established that the main source of radioactive contamination of soil and vegetation cover and the surface waters in the Elkon uranium ore area on the territory of South Yakutia are 40 rock dumps which are unevenly distributed in the total area of about 500 km ² of the mountain-taiga permafrost landscapes. It is determined that more than half of these dumps, in their radiation parameters, are classified as hazardous and specially hazardous.

We have examined the landscape structural features of the Mukhtel lowland and the mountains surrounding it on the southwestern coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. An analysis is made of the main formation factors for modern landscapes and for the structure of vegetation as the main indicator of its spatial organization. The influence of the landscape inversion is determined, which manifests itself in the formation of extensive swamps (mari) within the lowland and forest natural complexes in the lower parts of the slopes of the surrounding mountain ranges. The landscapes of hummocky-swale swamps with subarctic components of the flora in the areas of permafrost stretching along the shore of St. Nicholas Bay (Bugristaya Mar’ stow) and landscapes of abrasion-denudation ledges similar in natural conditions to the landscapes of the mountain tundra in the northern part of the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk have been identified. The description is provided for the altitudinal zonality of landscapes of low mountains and azonal landscapes of river valleys and coastal-marine accumulative landforms. A rare (for the Okhotsk Sea region) combination of diverse landscapes is observed in a small area a well as a sharp difference between plain and low-mountain natural complexes. Characteristic features of the distribution of elementary landscapes depending on the exposure of slopes, topography and soil composition were revealed. The 1:250 000 landscape map has been compiled on the basis of a conjugate analysis of thematic maps displaying the topography, soils and vegetation cover.

The economic significance of the historical and cultural potential, including the field-established geographical centers of the regions, is revealed. The advantages and disadvantages of the methods of determining the geographical centers of territories are considered. Their relationship with geoinformation systems is determined. It is found that the software of these systems has the functionality of automatically calculating the geometric center (centroid) of a polygonal object. It is suggested that the centroid can be used as the geographical center of the territories. The water area of Lake Baikal is used as the object for the study of software for geoinformation systems. We collected and systematized the digital topographic maps at a scale of 1:100 000 for the territory of Lake Baikal. A cartogram of digital material used in the experiment is compiled. The criterion is suggested for as sessing the quality of software for geoinformation systems. We calculated the centroids of Lake Baikal (in some widely used commercial software for geoinformation systems and in the software package of one of this article’s authors). The layout scheme of the lake centroids is developed. Based on analyzing the location of the centroids of the water area of Lake Baikal and on assessing the quality criteria, an assessment is made of the possibility of using the commercial software for geoinformation systems in order to determine the geographical center of territories. The coordinates of the geographical center of Lake Baikal are sug gested, which have been determined by authors.

Results of a long-term comprehensive study of the natural environment of Northeastern Cisbaikalia are presented. Some theoretical and practical issues of a cartographic study of topological-level geosystems are considered in terms of Academician V.B. Sochava’s theory of geosystems. The map of geosystems of the North-Baikal and Upper-Angara depressions displaying the ecological-dynamical interrelations of facies is compiled. The geosystems of the depressions of Northeastern Cisbaikalia are characterized by a relatively weak degree of anthropogenic disturbance thereby easing the selection of the natural boundaries of geosystems. Vegetation cover was the main component of the analysis of diversity of geosystems and dynamical processes occur ring in them. The investigation is based on data obtained in the process of field work and complemented by archival material; remote sensing data were also used. The main unit of mapping is represented by groups of facies, the number of which in the map legend totaling 101 without considering the derived units. These communities have an anthropogenic origin; however, the degree of disturbance of such communities is low, and the nature of restoration processes allows their full recovery to be pre dicted. A unified approach is suggested for identifying the classification divisions of different hierarchical levels for different types of landscapes, which permits comparisons of different territories from a variety of geosystems of a similar level. The content of the mountain tundra geom class was updated. The rejection of the use of subdivisions of tree stands in the classification schemes according to the type of limited, reduced and optimal development is considered. The groups of facies are subdivided according to soil thawing cycles and belonging to the types of factor-dynamical series. Emphasis is placed on the prospects and the need for large-scale investigations into geosystems for the purpose of assessing the environmental potential, predicting environmental changes and optiming the economic activities.

The issues related to efficiency of the use of the recreation potential and the regulation of the recreational load on the ter ritory of the nature parks of Volgograd oblast in established ecological routes are examined. For the analysis the Shcherbakovskii, Donskoi and El’tonskii Nature Parks are used their location on the territory of the region makes it possible to cover the entire spectrum of zonal steppe landscapes, including their different variations. The information basis for the analysis included data on the technical parameters of the routes implemented by selected nature parks and on congestion of the routes during the three seasons in the period 2015-2017. Estimates were made of the physical current capacity, maximum real capacity and actual capacity of the tourist routes and ecological trails. Our calculation implies a sequential updating of the value of effective current capacity on the basis of corrective parameters taking into account the actual conditions for the functioning of specially protected natural areas at the present time. Results of calculations show a consistent decrease of the values of recreation capacity in the «physical current capacity - maximum real capacity - actual capacity» line for most routes. The resulting pattern indicates a low level of load in implementing the route-based recreation and allows to suggest measures to improve its efficiency. The causes for the low efficiency in the use of the recreation potential of ecological and tourist routes for the nature parks of Volgograd oblast are identified.

A historical background of the hydrological role of forests abroad and in Russia is presented. Attention is focused on the significance of solid precipitation for the Ural in the formation of the channel flow and groundwater recharge. Forest is considered as a regulated landscape influencing the hydrological regime of the territory. The study as carried out in the southern-taiga for est district of the Middle Ural low-mountain province of the Ural mountain forest region. An analysis is made of snow storage under the forest canopy for a long-term period having regard to the fluctuations in winter weather conditions. Detailed forest inventory characteristics of forest stands on snow survey profiles are presented. Long-term series of observations were analyzed using principal component analysis. Data on the snow depth on open sites and under the forest canopy of a different composition are given. The leading formation factors for the snow layer and water storage in it within forest catchments are determined. It is established that in the Ural the snow depth in the forest is determined by the degree of closeness, the age of the forest stand and average temperatures of the winter season, and snow storage is primarily associated with the meteorological factors and slope exposure and less with the age and degree of closeness of the forest stand. Data on the dynamics of snow storage in forest stands of the same age and the same degree of closeness are presented. It is established that water storage in the snow can decrease with the increasing contribution of dark coniferous species; in this case, the leading formation factor for water storage in the snow is the contribution from coniferous species in the forest stand composition. The range of influence of the species composition of the forest stand depends largely on the weather conditions of the winter season.

This article presents the results of 30 years (1988-2017) observations of wind-snow interaction processes on the territory of Tomsk oblast. Based on long-term landscape-route snow surveys, it has been established that on the study territory every year there occur wind-driven snow processes similar to aeolian processes in the mechanism of action. An analysis is made of their influence on the soil transformation within the agrolandscapes in the south of Western Siberia. The influence of the various processes and properties of landscape components on snow accumulation conditions in small river basins of the Tom-Yaya in terfluve is outlined. For a detailed study into the wind-driven snow processes within the study territory, we used the key area located within the Basandika small river basin, with the type of nature management characteristic for the southern regions of Western Siberia. The average annual values of temperatures and precipitation amounts were calculated for the study territory, and their trends were determined. An analysis was made of changes in snow cover characteristics: the snow thickness, start of formation and duration. The anti-deflation resistance of soils was calculated and critical wind velocities leading to winter defla tion were identified. The wind regime parameters were determined for a cold period of a year: the frequency of moderate and strong wind velocities, their cyclicity and the activity of wind transport. Accumulative and deflationary aeolian relief-formations in a cold period of a year have been measured and described. Winter deflation of arable soils is assessed on the basis of long-term field observations, and the amount of aeolian snowdrift in the snow thickness is determined. It is concluded that the most intense development of deflation centers and the formation of aeolian ripples on the snow surface are observed in early spring during snowmelt. An analysis was made of the snow samples to reveal a high level of accumulation of soil particles on the snow surface. A predominance of dust fractions was observed in determining the composition of aeolian snowdrift.

We calculated the water balance and investigated the mineralization of water in closed Lake Chany, the largest lake in Western Siberia in terms of its water area and of great ecological and fisheries importance. The most important natural charac teristic of the lake is the cyclic fluctuation of the water level caused by the variability in the overall humidity of the Ob-Irtysh interfluve. The water level regime of Lake Chany is the main natural factor influencing its water-ecological state. Changes in water level are determined by the ratio between the inflow and discharge in its water balance. The modern water balance of Lake Chany (after the separation of the Yudinskii reach) was calculated for hydrological years, and the previously calculated values of its components were refined using a new digital elevation model. It was found that the most significant influence on the water level fluctuation comes from changes in the discharge of the Kargat and Chulym rivers feeding the lake, which is confirmed by a high correlation coefficient between the river inflow and the level increment. Comparison of the curve of changes of the average annual level of Lake Chany and the differential integral curve of the total annual flow of the Kargat and Chulym rivers shows that the main phases of fluctuations in the water level in the lake and the river inflow coincide. The values of mineralization of the lake water changes with fluctuations in water storage. Results of investigations made in 2002 and 2004 were used in carrying out the zoning of the lake water area according to the mineralization of water. The heterogeneity of water salinity is explained by the morphology of its basin without outflow, a low water exchange between different parts of the lake, and by the desalinating effect of the waters of its feeding rivers.

The spatial distribution of total water vapor content over the Yamal Peninsula and adjacent territories was analyzed using data of four-year-long measurements from the European ENVISAT satellite during warm periods of the year (June-August). Special attention was given to water vapor variations at the transition from little to abundant water-bearing areas of the underly ing surface. It was found that for the five selected sites located in a dry tundra and in large water bodies the logarithmic rather than Gaussian form of the distribution functions of total water vapor content turned out to be typical according to the number of its measurements. Each function has at least two modes. The parameters of these modes were calculated and presented, and they are necessary for simulation of climatic conditions in the northern territories. Geometric mean values of total water vapor content over the Gulfs of Gydan and Baidaratsk, and especially over the Gulf of Ob, can be by a factor of 1.5 larger than those for the less water-abundant areas of tundra and have clear boundaries coincident with geographical contours of the water bodies. It is most likely that these boundaries exist at insignificant speeds of surface winds, which is indicative of weak turbulent mixing of the lower air layers. This conclusion is confirmed by results from processing published data of ground-based and satellite observations. For the five sites they were used to calculate and construct the wind roses for all five sections in the same time intervals when the satellite measurements of water vapor content were carried out. Wind rose analysis shows that the average velocity of predomi nantly N and NW winds on all the selected sites at a height of 10 m above the underlying surface are 5-6 m/s with a standard deviation of 1.5 m/s. Additional data are presented on the form of the distribution function of various parameters in other natural environments (water bodies and vegetation) which give support to what has been said above about water vapor.

We substantiate the use of the previously developed methods to classify sections of the largest river (Lena) from the types of channel processes and special aspects of their management, i. e. water resource use, exploitation of the river as the water transport way, development of riverine areas and construction of river crossings for service lines. For assessing the complexity of river channel reconfiguration and implementing regulatory measures we use certain indicators of channel stability, the channel patten, river runoff, conditions of effective discharge, composition of bed-material load, occurrence of riffles and characteristics of their regime. It is shown that the indicator of complexity of channel processes management is represented by the amount of channel dredging performed to ensure normal navigation conditions. On the Lena river (from the Osetrovo port to the estuary) there are 10 reaches which differ both in the features and the degree of complexity of channel processes and, accordingly, in the conditions for their management. The study identified the most difficult (for channel management) sections; for the broad floodplain, unstable and compound braided channel we determined the main water management and water transport problems associated with channel processes.

The state and the prospects of implementation of major investment projects combined into the Eastern Gas Program have been analyzed. The terms of realization, the state of resources and the state of gas transportation system under the projects form ing part of them are considered. It is shown that only one (Sakhalin) of four gas production centers foreseen in the program has an adequate infrastructure; the unified gas transportation system has not been established, and the gas processing industry has received insufficient development. It has been determined that the capacity of the pipeline makes up 70 % of the total production volume and this is the factor limiting the development of the gas production and processing industry in the regions. The reasons for a change of the terms and conditions of the development of the projects of the Eastern Gas Program have been investigated. It is shown that the discrepancy in key goals and the actual state of gas industry in the eastern regions of the country is explained by the changing situation in the key gas markets, which determines the final economic efficiency of the projects, the lack of the solution to long-term demand problems and stable sources of financing. The prospects of the development of the projects of the Gas Program and the risks of implementation for the Russian side have also been investigated. The article describes a dependence of the implementation of separate projects on the possibility of signing efficient international contracts with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region and on the success of the strategy of formation of new export goods niches based on the in-depth processing of hydrocarbon raw materials. The consequences of creating the full-scale gas industry in Eastern Russia have been analyzed. It has been determined that the projects within the Program with a focus on the formation of the national export income have been implemented. It is shown that the projects within the Program do not ensure an accelerated development of the Eastern regions of the country because of the lack linkages between the projects and other branches of regional economy. Furthermore, the regions do not accumulate financial resources from the project implementation.

Socio-economic maps are essential for identification and system analysis of sectoral and territorial imbalances, ensuring the effective organization of productive forces, planning and forecasting of socio-economic development of the territory. This paper presents the authors’ experience in creating and interpreting socio-economic maps in national and regional atlases, ana lyzes current trends in the development of socio-economic mapping of the eastern regions of the country, which have their own characteristic features (a high sectoral and territorial differentiation, weak integration ties, underdeveloped infrastructure and innovation, etc.). Special attention is paid to the creation and practical use of the general economic map as a universal source of spatial information. In this context, an attempt is made to modify the technique of compiling the general economic map. The authors’ scientific developments that have found their practical implementation are presented. We defined the main problems and prospects of further developing socio-economic mapping related to future geoinformation mapping. Results of summarizing and re-interpreting a huge body of theoretical and practical material suggest that socio-economic mapping is in the next critical stage of its development and requires significant changes in many areas. Therefore, this dictates a need for a new view of the concep tual framework and methodology for compilation and use of socio-economic maps, and for switchover to the creation of complex maps (animation, three-dimensional, assessment-forecast and other maps.

The problem of constructing a statistical predictive model and the related problem of selecting predictors for the forecasted variable are considered. This study is based on using data on the interannual variability in average discharge of the Ob in the hydrometric section of Barnaul during the flood period and on hydrometeorological characteristics having a potential influence on it. It is argued that the result from selecting predictors for the predictive model depends not only on the data used but also on the method employed in solving the problem. Such a method is determined by the mathematical operator used to approximate the simulated dependence, the optimality criterion of the model and the algorithm for selecting predictors. To study the influence of the modeling method on its result, a number of computer experiments were carried out, and each of them used different meth ods to find the best combination of predictors. It is shown that the best solution on the training sample is not always confirmed on independent data. To improve the sustainability of the simulation results, it is recommended that the criteria for selecting the optimal model should be used, which include assessments of its reliability. Use and comparison of different methods of construct ing models made it possible to identify the main predictors which explain most of the variance of the forecasted discharge. They are determined primarily by data on the object and have a physical interpretation. Their selection is less dependent on the method used to construct the model. The highest effectiveness was shown by the method of constructing the predictive model as an ensemble of partial models, each of which uses a limited number of non-intersecting predictors. Retaining the sustainability of the simulation result, make it possible to take into account, along with the main predictors, also the influence of secondary factors and, hence, to improve somewhat the quality of the predictive technique being developed.

Use of the basin approach and other modern research methods (information-logical analysis, and geomodeling) helped to reveal the interaction and special features of the mutual location of geosystems of altitudinal belts and river catchments which form the characteristic features in the differentiation of vegetation and soil cover in mountain conditions. It is shown that the landscape pattern and morphometric characteristics of river basins indicate different processes of destruction of the mountain massif in the western and eastern parts of the Basegi Ridge. It was found that the asymmetry in the slopes of the ridge and the associated hydrothermal conditions lead to a differentiation in the structural organization of the basins. This study determined the degree of dependence of the plant community and the soil type on the slope steepness and exposure, the absolute elevation and structural elements of the catchments of small rivers. According to an enhancement in the degree of influence on the growth conditions of plant communities, the topographic features under study form a series: slope exposure < elements of river ba sins < slope steepness < height above the sea level in meters. Specific conditions of vegetation and soils corresponding to the elements of the basin are determined. It is concluded that tundra and meadow vegetation is more informative. Based on the generalized spatial analysis, the cartographic model was developed for the soil cover of the Basegi Ridge. The elements of the catchments are characterized by different soil cover. A maximal diversity of plant communities and soil cover variegation on the slope surfaces of river basins is more clearly pronounced. Soil cover variegation implies a combination of zonal soils (Brown forest soils, Cambisols) of the mountain taiga and azonal soils (Gleezems (Gleysols) and peat soils (Histosols)). Hence, with the processes of basin formation predominating, the slopes show some “deformation” of the existing structure of altitudinal-vegetation belts. In watershed spaces, above the energy zones (catchment funnels), the influence of basin formation is weakening and the altitudinal zonation-associated differentiation is enhanced.

Presented are the results from investigating the atmospheric self-purification capacity over the cities of Irkutsk, Beijing and Ulaanbaatar for the summer and winter seasons of 2017-2018. The meteorological potential of the atmosphere (MPA) was used as the criterion for assessing the atmospheric self-purification. It is shown that in the summer season of 2017 the favorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollutants were dominant over the territory of Irkutsk and Ulaanbaatar. In the summer, MPA was 0,99 and 0,78 in Irkutsk and in Ulaanbaatar, respectively. MPA varied from 2,14 to 4,66 in Beijing in the summer. For the winter months in the three cities, MPA > 1, which indicates an accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere for that season. In Ulaanbaatar there were unfavorable conditions for self-purification: the maximum MPA index (9.5) was observed in December. The largest contribution to impairment of the atmospheric diffusing capacity over Ulaanbaatar in the wintertime was made by wind velocities of 0-1 m/s. It was found that the maximum accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere over Beijing occurs in the winter. MPA varied from 15,0 in February to 19,03 in December, averaging 16.68. Fogs made the largest contribution to the unfavorable meteorological conditions of Beijing in December-February. The characteristic properties of the atmospheric circulation, wind regime, fog and atmospheric precipitation were responsible for MPA of Irkutsk, Ulaanbaatar and Beijing for the period under consideration.