DEVELOPMENT OF MEDIUM-TERM PREDICTION METHODS: A CASE STUDY OF THE AUGUST 14, 2016 ONOR (Mw = 5.8) EARTHQUAKE ON SAKHALIN
A.S. Zakupin1, Yu.N. Levin2, N.V. Boginskaya1, O.A. Zherdeva1
1Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Nauki 1B, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693022, Russia
2Sakhalin Branch of the Federal Research Center of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Science, ul. Tikhookeanskaya 2A, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693010, Russia
Keywords: Прогноз, сейсмичность, каталог, LURR, Prediction, seismicity, catalog, LURR
Abstract
The potential of the load-unload response ratio (LURR) method for medium-term earthquake prediction is studied for Sakhalin Island as an example. An approach to the generation of predicted conditions and assessment of their implementation in real time is considered. The results of a retrospective analysis of other large Sakhalin earthquakes are used for generalization. It is shown that deviations of prediction parameters from specified values are satisfactory for this method. It is recommended that this method be used to compile summaries of medium-term predictions for Sakhalin provided that catalogs should be filled as soon as possible.
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