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ECO journal (ECOnomics and industrial Engineering)

2018 year, number 5

The Future of the Russian Economy in the Eyes of “Fathers” and “Sons”. The Fourth Sight

D. S. Mikhailovskaya1, V. V. Shmat2,1
1Novosibirsk State University
2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS
Keywords: сценарное прогнозирование, моделирование экономики, экспертно-статистический байесовский метод, факторный анализ, фазовое пространство, фазовый портрет, мониторинг-прогноз, неопределенность, экономика России, ресурсозависимость, регион, межрегиональная дифференциация, региональная политика, Scenario forecast, economy modeling, expert-statistical Bayesian method, factor analysis, phase space, phase portrait, monitoring-forecast, uncertainty, Russian economy, resource dependency, region, interregional differentiation, regional policy

Abstract

This article presents the results of the fourth step of the scenario forecast of Russian economy development with the use of expert-statistical Bayesian method, which was designed for conditions of fundamental uncertainty. Several steps of research give us an opportunity to monitor modifications in expert’s opinions about a future of the economy according to current changes. Bayesian method also enable us to estimate scenarios’ chances from the different points of view, to make an accent on different problems. At this stage, the model was based on a regional problematic in Russia. Numerical modeling shows us a tendency to a more pragmatic and administrative way of the economy development.