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Russian Geology and Geophysics

2018 year, number 2

ASSESSMENT OF THE TSUNAMI HAZARD ON THE RUSSIAN COAST BASED ON A NEW CATALOGUE OF TSUNAMIS IN THE BLACK SEA AND THE SEA OF AZOV

A.A. Nikonov1, V.K. Gusiakov2,3, L.D. Fleifel’1
1Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. B. Gruzinskaya 10, Moscow, 123810, Russia
2Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pr. Akademika Lavrent'eva 6, 630090, Russia
3Institute of Computational Technologies, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pr. Akademika Lavrent'eva 6, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: Природные катастрофы, очаги землетрясений, сейсмотектоника, цунами, исторические каталоги, цунамиопасность, цунамирайонирование, внутренние бассейны, Черное море, Азовское море, Natural disasters, earthquake sources, seismotectonics, tsunami, historical catalogues, tsunami hazard, tsunami zoning, inland basins, Black Sea, Sea of Azov

Abstract

We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.