Using the OMMM-TEK Information-Program-Model Complex in Scenario Analysis of the Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector in Regions: Methodical Aspects
N.I. SUSLOV, V.F. BUZULUTSKOV
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: ОМММ-ТЭК, экспорт угля и газа, импортозамещение, машиностроение, OMMM-TEK, coal and gas exports, import substitution, me- chanical engineering
Abstract
The article describes an interregional input-output optimization model for the fuel and energy sector (OMMM-TEK model complex), experience of its use, and functioning scheme. From the methodological point of view, we show how its application allows modeling and analyzing macroeconomic consequences of reducing coal and gas exports to Europe, presented as various scenarios. The article examines previous experience of OMMM-assisted gas exports modeling and reproduces it in experimental calculations. We compare it with the analysis concerning the ratios between specific coal and gas exports and imports of products with high added value based on input-output tables. In calculations, we use a method of linking negative incremental values of regional coal and gas exports to the national imports of engineering products in certain quantitative proportions. We draw a distinction between the concepts of a national economic scenario and situational scenarios. Options for expor- ting fuel and energy resources are built upon parametric analysis within the given national economic scenario. The article shows that potential GDP (GRP) losses following a reduction in coal and gas exports and in the imports of engineering products may be rather significant. However, they can be largely compensated by import substitution.
|
