Analysis of the company›s risk profile based on the indicators of leverage effects
V.G. Ionin, N.Yu. Nikolaeva
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Str. Kamenskaya, 56, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia
Keywords: совокупный риск, эффекты рычагов, факторный анализ, индексный анализ, total risk, leverage effects, factor analysis, index analysis
Abstract
This article deals with the problems of factor analysis of the organization’s total risk index. Our task was to perform the decomposition of this index into a sum of three factors - operational, non-operating and financial risks. Risks were measured with the use of appropriate indicators of the effects of leverage. The factor analysis of the cumulative risk is based on an equiprobable scheme. The method has been tested on four organizations for different time intervals. With the use of the tool of exponential smoothing we attempted to predict the changes in the target index and in factors.
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