FORECAST AND FORESIGHT: TWO FUTURE PARADIGMS. Methodological aspect
S.A. Smirnov
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Kamenskaya st., 56, Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Region, 630099
Keywords: прогноз, форсайт, будущее, предвидение, образ будущего, тренды развития, forecast, foresight, future, foresight, vision of the future, development trends
Abstract
The paper provides an analysis of the foundations of modern forecasting and foresight. Provides several options for comparing the practices of forecasting and foresight practices. Introduced the concept of two paradigms of understanding and comprehension of the phenomenon of the future - a classic naturalistic, based on the normative forecast, and nonclassical based on foresight. A list of the first lessons to be learned from the practice of foresight when working on the construction of images of the future, analysis and diagnostics development trends.
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